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Brad Powers

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(At current odds)

2019-04-28T19:35:00.000Z 2019-04-28T19:35:00.000Z - NBA

555 Houston Rockets
vs.
556 Golden State Warriors

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

04/28/2019

NBA Totals

UN HOU/GS

104-100

224½

1

W

100

Analysis

1-star (555/556) Houston/GOLDEN STATE UNDER 224.5. 3:35pm ET. The public often thinks high-flying offense and high scoring games with these two teams. However, that actually isn’t the case. There’s been 35 meetings between these two teams in the Steve Kerr era and the UNDER is 23-11-1 with an average cover by 6 ppg. In the playoffs, the UNDER is 14-3 between these two teams going UNDER by an average of 13 ppg.  This year, the UNDER actually went 3-1 in the 4 games these two teams played. Also note that Houston's defense really picked up in the Utah series as they held the Jazz to just 98 ppg (13 ppg below their season average). 


Small Lean (555) Houston +5.5 over GOLDEN STATE. 3:35pm ET. Obviously, Houston has the rest advantage here while Golden State is far less than 100-percent health wise. Boogie Cousins is out for the rest of the season and while Steph Curry (ankle) should play today, Klay Thompson (ankle) is questionable. The Rockets have revenge for blowing a 3-2 series lead to Golden State last year as Chris Paul was hurt in the final couple of games. I do think we are looking at another 7-game series here (although Golden State has the home court advantage this time) and However, I would not be shocked if Houston actually won it. Golden State looks as vulnerable as they've been in the last 3-4 years. I'll call for the Warriors to win in 7 games.



Lean (551) Boston +7.5 over MILWAUKEE. 1:05pm ET. This is the largest underdog role of the season for Boston as they were 4-1 ATS when getting 5 or more points. Obviously, Milwaukee has been upgraded big time after the Detroit series. The Bucks won and covered all 4 games by an average of 11 ppg (won by 24 ppg!). Personally, I think it's a little too much as Detroit was one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory especially with a banged up Blake Griffin. There is this media narrative that Boston beat Milwaukee last year in the playoffs without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward so they can certainly do it again this year with those two players now in the line-up. The problem with that thought process is Milwaukee's roster has been over-hauled and Milwaukee had an interim coach in Joe Prunty last year. Now the Bucks have the likely coach of the year in Mike Budenholzer. As far as Game 1 goes, I do lean with Boston getting the hefty number but I think Milwaukee wins the series in 7 games.



Pick Creation Time:
04/28/2019 7:49 AM
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