1-star (691) Michigan St +2.5 over Duke. 5:05pm ET. Yes, I'm fully aware that Coach K is 11-1 SU vs Tom Izzo. However, please note that Duke has been favored in 11 of those 12 meetings and the two teams have split the games ATS wise at 6-6. Obviously, Duke has been really fortunate in the last couple games of the NCAA tournament. Generally speaking, I think this Duke has taken a step back down the stretch even with Zion Williamson back in the line-up as they are now on a 3-11 ATS run. Duke forward Cam Reddish (13.6 ppg) sat out the Sweet 16 game vs Virginia Tech with a back injury and will be a game-time decision here. On the other side, Michigan St has dominated their last two opponents in the tournament and the Spartans are now the most profitable team in the country at 26-11 ATS this season. MSU forward Nick Ward (13.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) re-aggravated his injured hand again vs LSU but is probable for this game. If this game comes down to the final minutes, note Michigan St is the much better free throw shooting team (No. 26 vs No. 251). Also Duke's 3-point shooting woes (No. 329 in the country) should continue here vs a Michigan St defense that is allowing just 31.4% (No. 31 in the country) from beyond the arc. If you had to get involved on the total, I would have a small lean on the UNDER 151. I expect Michigan St to slow the tempo down and the UNDER has gone 22-8-1 in Duke games this year.

Small Lean (694) Kentucky -4.5 over Auburn. 2:20pm ET. The old adage that it is tough to beat a team 3 times in one season is over-played in the market place. In the last 10 years, the team that has won the first two meetings has gone on to win the 3rd meeting around 70% of the time. Kentucky destroyed Auburn in their last meeting 80-53 as the Wildcats limited Auburn to just 32.8% from the field, their 2nd lowest performance of the season. Since that game Auburn has notably won 11 straight games. They continue to be red-hot from 3-point range hitting 17 vs North Carolina the other night much to our dismay. However, on the injury front, Auburn forward Chuma Okeke (12.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg) is out for the season after injuring his knee vs North Carolina. Okeke was having one of his best performances of the entire season with 20 points and 11 rebounds prior to the injury. The Tigers were already one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and without Okeke they are at a major disadvantage here. Auburn is No. 334 in defensive rebounding %, while Kentucky is No. 5 in the country in offensive rebounding %. The Wildcats got back leading scorer PJ Washington vs Houston and he was pivotal with 16 points in the win. If you had to get involved on the total, I'd have a small lean on the UNDER 142.5. It has been a big money-maker in Kentucky games with a 16-3 mark in their last 19.