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sleepyj

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(At current odds)

2019-03-20T01:10:00.000Z 2019-03-20T01:10:00.000Z - College Basketball

671 Belmont Bruins
vs.
672 Temple Owls

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

03/19/2019

CBB Money Lines

Belmont

81-70

-125

3

W

300

Analysis
This is a ML parlay. I don't do many of these, but we lost value in the line with Belmont. Do I think they can cover this number?...Yes 100%, but it's not wise to lay 3.5pts when the line was -1....I feel we can cross sport parlay here.

Belmont ML x Warriors ML

I dug through the stats and Temple is about as average as a team gets. They do have some glaring weaknesses on this Owls team. #174 scoring defense.

#207 FG%
#248 3pt FG%
#297 Rebound Margin
#306 Blocked shots

It's tough to back a team that doesn't shoot well. Weak inside game. Can't shoot the 3ball if they need too. A team that might get beat on the glass by margin.

What does Temple do well?.

Assists #89
Turnovers #47
Steals #16
3pt Defense #89
FT% #94

Now that's a decent list of things temple does well, but I'm not certain those areas are great against a team like Belmont. 

Belmont doesn't turn the ball over that much..#42 in the nation..That's very good and for how fast they play on offense, that's actually impressive with all the possessions they get per game, that number isn't much, much higher.

Assists #4.....Scoring Offense #2...Assist to TO ratio #2....So Although Temple does well with steals, Belmont offsets that area....Belmont #43 in 3pt FG%...Well although Temple is solid at 3pt defense, Belmont makes that number not as solid as it seems.

Now Belmont defense is bad. #244, but I'm not sold Temple's offense does enough to really outgun Belmont. 

Belmont wins the rebound battle. Assists, Free throws, 3pt line, free throw line...Not many things Belmont actually loses in the stats.

Two areas Belmont kinda struggles...Free throw attempts...#258, but Temple #146 in fouls...So Expect Belmont to get a decent amount of looks maybe..Plus Temple hasn't seen an offense like Belmont that many times this season..That speed might make Temple take a few extra hacks. 

I don't see many things that say Temple...The pro's got this early and joe's piled on late. Let's not lay a bad number, let's take advantage of the stats and situations.

So why the Warriors...Well Golden St just lost yesterday to the Spurs...You can only imagine the champs bounce back here against the T-Wolves..Plus we have to take into consideration that Denver is now tied with Golden St for the West's best record..You know the champs want nothing to do with travel for the playoffs if they can avoid it. All we need is for the Warriors to rebound here. I think the Warriors might rattle off 6 straight wins and they'll look to put the West to bed..It starts tonight.

_____________________________________________________________

Bonus Plays.

Let's make this real simple...NIT games are focused around motivation. You will here motivation until you literally can't stand it anymore with these CBI, CIT and NIT games.

Fact is we can use it now..That logic goes out the window after the first game..Once a team who had questionable motivation wins, we can't really use that logic again.

So we fade 3 teams who I think has questionable motivation tonight.

#1 UNC-Greensboro....They got screwed..Not by the committee, but by Oregon, St. Mary's St. Louis...Those teams winning threw them right out of the tournament..had all those teams not won the conf championship, Greensboro is in. Well they are out and that has to be heart breaking. Even the coach took it pretty hard and the players have to be as well..Are they going to be up for a game already after getting jobbed...I doubt it...Play CAMPBELL +10

#2 Hofstra +9.5...Look NC st got hosed too. I think they might be taking not getting in the hardest. I mean they could of snuck into a play in game, but not to be the case..If they are flat as a pancake, Hofstra covers.

#3 Wright St. +14.5...Now Clemson is a bit of a different story..They missed out for sure, but I'm not certain they really thought they had a legit shot..They were on the bubble for sure, but the season is over..Wright St. had a shot at the title, but fell short..I still think Wright St is happy to be playing and laying a big named school..They will come out fired up.

#4...****Don't play against INDIANA....Why...well I'm not sure, but they stink and they never deserved to be in to me...I doubt they thought they had a shot and getting bounced in the BIG10 tournament early let that all sink in early...Hoosiers are a #1 seed and they are playing in Indiana..So let's not fade these bums...lol.
Pick Creation Time:
03/19/2019 1:14 AM
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