(2) Free 1* Play below.
My thinking for this one is simple. Kansas isn't the same Kansas team that was playing well early. key injuries have hurt them and now they got this added pressure being placed in the top 16 by committee. I don't think they are that good and now they have to go on the road and play. TCU on the other hand needs to get this win tonight. If they do, they can rip off 3 straight wins and they can get out of that bubble conversation I think.
TCU also has revenge for this game...One of TCU's big issues has been playing on the road...5 of the 6 losses have come on the road in conference. They did lose at home to a very good Lipscomb team who will probably win the ASUN Conference..Besides that home loss, TCU hasn't lost at home since Nov. 20th...That's 9 straight at home. On the flip side of that. Kansas has now lost 6 straight road games and all have come within the conference.
The stats tell me TCU is the slightly better team on paper. Now I know Kansas has had a tougher schedule, but TCU still had a tough schedule as well.
Here are some stats for us to look at...These favor TCU
Scoring Defense +0.5
3pt Def % +1
FT % +1
Assists + 3
Now Kansas wins a few areas, but not areas I think are as important.
FG% Def +1
3pt FG% +0.5
So we get some numbers raw point wise in our favor. I think we got the situation and the home court advantage here. Plus we got revenge. Money has come in on TCU and I agree with it. Kansas will play some close games, so it's the ML for me since I missed the -1. No sense laying -2.5 when we can grab the ML. If you are forced to lay the line in this one, play it for 1.5*
I feel this one will be close, but TCU will eventually pull away early...Kanas will get back in it, but not before they falter late...TCU 76-72.
UNC +1.5....I thought this line would be UNC -1.5 not getting points..I'm not buying into the Cavaliers taking money..UNC at home just waiting for Virginia now. Virginia really wanted to avenge that loss to Duke and they failed. That takes a toll on you especially in the biggest game of the season. UNC is rolling right now and they could secure a good seed if they keep banging out these winner. I think the mental well being for Virginia is in question..I can guarantee UNC faithful will be in full throat here knowing the Cavaliers are shark bait..Blood in the water type atmosphere in the dean dome tonight.
Cavs -1.5......Don't touch the Knicks guys...Both of these teams are tanking and if the Knicks can tank the game they will. This is worth a lottery pick and if the Cavs win, it gives the Knicks more wiggle room. Right now NYK is in the top spot with the worst record..yes the top 3 teams get the same amount of lottery balls, but if NYK loses, they have a decent buffer to not lose out on top 3 pick. I'd fade these teams the rest of the way. I'm not saying blanket bet against, but these 4 teams on the road should be considered play against..It won't be long these 4 teams will be getting way too many points to even fade them.