Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers
#501-502
6:05pm ET / 3:05pm PT
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
This is one of those rare Sunday games in which BOTH teams just played last night. Indiana won at home over Dallas (111-99), and the game went UNDER. Charlotte wont home over Phoenix (135-115), and the game went OVER. We have no problem playing along with the long-term Over / Under TENDENCIES of this Hornets / Pacers SERIES. The last 16 games of this series played IN Indiana have gone 3-13 O/U. the last 13 have gone 2-11 O/U. ten ,last 8 have gone 1-7 O/U. And the last 5 have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U. Average OU line: 208.5… Average combined points: Only 196.6… Average OU MARGIN: -11.9 points per game.
Our first database query looks at recent NBA games in which BOTH teams just played the previous night… 2-13-1 O/U last 3 seasons: All CONFERENCE hope favorites in a ‘0/0’ REST situation (BOTH teams NO rest), when both teams are off a SU win the previous day (Pacers + Hornets), and the OU line is in the range of 200 to 224 points.
As mentioned above, Charlotte just blasted the Suns by 20 points in last night’s non-conference home win… 0-6-1 O/U since 2014: All NBA road underdogs of > 5 points off a SU non-conference woof 20 or more points (Hornets) that also went OVER the Total.
Final score of that big win for Charlotte last night was 135 to 115… 1-9-1 O/U last 2 years: All NBA teams of a SU win in which they SCORED 130 > pts and ALLOWED 115 > pts (Hornets) vs any opponent also off a SU win (Pacers), when the OU line is 220 or less points.
So that’s three BIG wins in a row for the underdog Hornets: 135-115 vs Phoenix… 114-95 vs Sacramento… and 108-93 over San Antonio… 1-8-1 O/U since November: All NBA road underdogs of 5 > points off 3 or more SU and ATS wins in a row (Hornets).
For the host Pacers, we ran a shot query based off last night’s win over the Dallas Mavericks… 0-7 O/U so far THIS season: All Conference home teams with NO rest off a SU home win hat also went UNDER the Total (Pacers), when the OU Line is > 207 points.
Actually, Indian tis off not one but TWO straight home UNDERS in a row… 0-6 O/U last six weeks: All NBA home favorites of > 1 point off two home UNDERS in a row (Pacers) when the OU Line is 218 or more points.
When these two divisions get together, we always look to Go LOW when the Central team is a favorite (like Indiana)… 1-9 O/U since November: All CENTRAL DIVISION home favorites of < 13 points (Pacers) versus any SOUTHEAST DIVISION opponent (Hornets).
Clinching the play is a statistical look at the BEST defensive teams in the league over the last seven days: #4 in the league in defensive efficiency is CHARLOTTE, allowing only 104.1 points per 100 possessions…. #5 in the league in defensive efficiency is INDIANA, allowing only 104.2 points per 100 possessions.