Perhaps a risky play tonight, but I can only go under in this one..I LEAN Buffalo a little bit...Let's get into why the under..First of all these game shouldn't be that close...Buffalo just beat E. Mich by 16 in E. Michigan...Now that could be a bad thing that these teams get a 2nd look at each other so quick..But I feel some of the numbers last game might very very telling.
Buffalo shot 50% from the floor which is very, very good...E. Mich has a decent defense and they also play at a snails pace...Buffalo will look to run, but Buffalo had a tough game in the last game letting up 79pts to W. Mich...Now Buffalo won, but only by 9 points...E. Michigan on the other hand lost a close game 51-49...So they can play defense and I'm sure that type of effort will resurface here..plus we get the pace with them as well.
E. Michigan on offense stinks though.
3pt FG% = #334 Wow that's bad..Now on the road..I'd be surprised if they hit 22%
Free Throw% = #331 That's terrible and shooting from the charity stripe on the road..Maybe 60%
Fouls committed #45....That's very good...I like the fact that E. Michigan isn't a foul happy team..These teams just played and only 18 fouls for E. Michigan..That should keep buffalo off the line tonight to a degree that'll hurt us.
Blocks #39...We love blocks in under wagers and E. Michigan is solid down low.
Steals #39...Now this would hurt us if E. Michigan was a team that looks to run and gun, but they are a set it up offense first and that pace again...So this can only help us.
Buffalo on the other hand is a good team, but not many elite stats...Well above average though.
Buffalo is solid at blocks as well..#33...So we got the paint part covered as far as defense is concerned.
Buffalo ranks #161 3pt%.....That's good, but still in that average area.
Free throw %...#157....Again good, but still avg.
Solid at rebounding as well...Actually both teams are solid in that area..So it's hit or miss how this will work out for or against us...I think two great rebounding teams matched up helps us more than hurts us because the defense never knows if they should run back out in transition.
We also have the fact that Buffalo could win by margin here...That should take away the foul situation at the end and Buffalo might try to milk the clock..They just beat these guys up a few games back..Do they really have incentive to run the score up on these guys..E. Michigan hasn't beaten Buffalo in a while, so why drill this team for no reason.
I also like playing under's when the home team is coming off a road game..That sometimes takes time to adjust to the home court for a few extra minutes.
This number has gone up and most of the money could be sharp money, but when it comes to low profile teams, head fakes are common so the big money can pound the other side...I think we have the stats and game-plan in our favor here regardless.
I got this one....79-61 area.