Pro Pick From
sleepyj

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2018-12-06T03:00:00.000Z 2018-12-06T03:00:00.000Z - College Basketball

605 Southern Utah
vs.
606 Long Beach State 49ers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

Wednesday

CBB Totals

UN SUT/LBS

82-71

151

3

L

-330

Analysis
This total is too high...It's a bit surprising there is no movement on this one early this morning...I made my line 140.5...So I'm getting value...One of the easy ways to look at totals is take what makes a total go over. What increases chances at points and find those stats..Well assists is a big one and we see between both of teams they are very poor assisting teams...So. Utah ranks #321 and LBS #185...That's not good and the benefit to those two numbers is the defense that struggles more is LBS, but So. Utah really struggles to assist, so that really helps LBS on the defensive side of the ball. I know this isn't factored into the line. 

The next area is offensive FG%...Well how good are the shooters on your team...Both teams are very low at only 45% combined which isn't even in the top 200 teams....Now we can break down the FG% in a few ways...Lets look at 3pt%...LBS #209..So. Utah #146....That's not bad as an avg, but they also have to face a defense..Let's check it out..We hope we have some low numbers now to offset that 3pt shooting.....Nice...So. Utah #59 and LBS is #188....That's a huge help as the defense actually has better number than the offense...I like that, so the 3pt line won't be a major issue for us...Let's check Free Throw shooting now.....LBS #223...So. Utah #330....Ouch these teams combined stink at the free throw line..That's huge for us as far as these 3 areas go all together...Do these teams foul is the question..It's not a huge negative if they do if they can't shoot well though...Let's check....LBS fouls a lot, but they are one of the worst teams in the nation getting fouled...#320 in fouls and #325 in fouls for themselves...So it's about even there...So. Utah #11 in fouls and #298 in fouls for themselves.....Well that's great news as So Utah doesn't foul at all...So LBS even thought hey get to the line a bunch, they might struggle with getting to the line tonight.

We like blocks as well...Well these two teams only combine for about 6 blocks per game..That's nothing special and we typically like to see 10+ blocks to really make a difference..

Turnovers and steals is big....Both teams turn the ball over about 31 times a game..That's about avg and Steals is about 12 which is average...I don't see anything that is good or bad in that area.

I don't see much else that worries me here..The fact is both teams shooting % in those areas is below average to well below average..Everything else that I see is even for both sides..I think with LBS playing at home and the defensive unit that has struggled will step up. So. Utah has some things that will make that happen as we see above.

I got this one in that 71-68 range.
Pick Creation Time:
Wednesday - 8:51 AM
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