Sunday, November 4th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#457-458
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in ASAP. I got mine in at 54.5… We’re FADING a low-scoring series as of late (Bucs / Panthers 0-4 O/U L4 meetings), and instead expecting a NFC South S-H-O-O-T-O-U-T in Sunday’s early kicks. Despite the high OU line (54 or more points), there’s no way we want to miss out on what should be a high-scoring, down-to-the-wire game. After all, it’ll be a battle of the two WORST Red Zone TD% teams on DEFENSE this season. TAMPA has allowed foes to score a TD 88% of the time when they get to the Red Zone, and CAROLINA is 2nd worst in the league at 77%. So it looks like the Field Goal kickers can take a seat in this one. Both teams are playing pretty well on offense, as well. Tampa (with Fitz-MAGIC back in the fold) is one of only 7 teams in the league to average MORE than 28 ppg this year. Not only that., but they hav quickened trier offense Pace of Play CONSIDERABLY as of late. Tampa Bay is now the 4th FASTEST team in the league on offense, with an average of 69 plays per game. In their last three games, the numbers are even BETTER at 78.0. And LAST week, they basically ‘lapped the entire field’ with 83 OFFENSIVE plays in their game versus the Bengals.
On the flip side, the Panthers just scored 36 points against the BEST defense in the entire league. With that gaudy output (including 386 yards against a team that was allowing only 280 on the year!), Carolina’s offense is now up to 25.4 ppg for the season. The fact that they scored a big-time total against the GREAT Baltimore defense was very revealing. It was also a testament to the fantastic off-season hire of Norv Turner as Carolina’s new offensive coordinator. The Panthers offense is now BACK to the high-scoring year that they had in their 2015 Super Bowl season. In the last 12 months, Carolina has scored 31 or MORE points at home in SEVEN out of eight games.
With both teams off a strong offensive showing, our database tells us that: NFL underdogs of +3 > pts have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 5 years when BOTH teams (BUCS + PANTHERS) scored 34 > points in their last game.
Tampa lost another shootout last week on the AFC road vs Cincinnati (37-34). It was their 5TH game already in which they scored AND allowed 23 > points (and we’re only in Game 8!)… 8-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All road teams who allowed 37 < pts on the ROAD last week (BUCCANEERS), when the OU line is a high 48 or more.
In last week’s game vs the Bengals, Tampa ALSO had a very high OU line (55 points). And that one STILL went Over the Total easily… 8-1-1 O/U last three years: All road underdogs of > 2 points off a ROAD ‘Over’ when theOU line in that last game was 49 or more points (BUCCANEERS).
In a 2-week stretch, Carolina goes from home UNDERDOG to sizable home FAVORITE…. 13-3 O/U L10Y: All GAME FIVE > home favs of > 6 points who were a home UNDERDOG the previous week (PANTHERS), when the OU line is > 37 points.
We acknowledge that Carolina’s D is also playing well these days (20.3 ppg allowed L3)…. 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All HOME teams who ALLOWED 23 < pts in EACH of their last 3 games (CAROLINA) vs any opponent who ALLOWED 23 > pts in EACH of THEIR last 3 games (TB).
Up next for the Panthers: A THURSDAY road game vs the Steelers… 10-2 O/U L3Y: All NFL home teams BEFORE playing a THURSDAY road game (CAROLINA), when the OU line is > 46 points.