Saturday, Nov. 3rd
#503-504
7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Our very first play of the 2018/2019 NBA season goes in Indiana tonight, as the PACERS host the CELTICS in a battle of two of the best defensive teams in the league. We are certainly aware that its been a big-time OVER start for the league this season. After two weeks, 58% of ALL games have gone Over the Total (72-52 O/U). But we like the low-scoring pattern of this series… the fact that we have two very good STAT teams on terns of defense… and the fact that the Pacers just played last night to boot.
This Boston / Indiana series has gone UNDER the Total 72% of the time over the last eight years. Official results: 8-21-1 O/U in the last 30 meetings…. and 3-9-1 O/U in the last 13 (75% Under).
From our ADVANCED STATS / Pro Basketball website: Only ONE Team in the entire league is allowing LESS than 100 points per 100 possessions on defense this season. That team is the Boston Celtics. With an average of 98.5 points allowed ‘Per 100 Poss’. Yes, it’s been a high-scoring start all around. But we can at least trust that Boston will have the same defensive ‘chops’ that they also had last year… when they finished #2 n the league in defense (right behind Utah). It’s also nice to know that the PACERS are also ranked in the Top 7 in the league in this defensive category as well. And on offense, the Celtics are ranked pretty low: #27 in the league in offensive points ‘Per 100 Poss’ (at 102.6). it’ll be a good time to Go LOW in a Pacers game… given the fact that Indiana has gone 4-18-1 O/U since 2011 in non-division Conference games when in a ‘0/1’ REST situation (NO rest vs 1 day rest). That includes 90% UNDER the Total (1-9 O/U) in the last three years.
So let’s look at that NO REST situation for tonight’s host from a league-wide perspective, and the fact that the Pacers are off a big division win over the Chicago Bulls last night... 9-27-2 O/U last 5 years: All NBA home teams with NO REST off a division ROAD win (Pacers), when the OU line is in the range of 199 to 215 points. In the last 2 seasons, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-12 O/U!
Both of these teams are in current MINI winning streaks. Boston: 4-0 SU last 4 games… Indiana: 2-0 SU last 2 games. With Boston being the road ‘chalk’ team tonight, we note that: NBA road favorites have gone 0-7 O/U in this calendar year when BOTH teams are off BB SU was in row (Celtics + Pacers) and the OU line is < 214 points.