1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT#255-256
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Sharp Totals players BETTER have some key OU AMMO from their database to go UNDER in a KC game these days, and we certainly do. Division rival Denver knows how to slow this game down. In fact, they just did it four weeks ago in the earlier meeting. In that one, Denver RAN for 160+ yards and held the Chiefs to only 13 points midway thru the 4th quarter. Yes, they still ended up losing (27-23)... but it DID go Under. As good as the KC offense is these days, let’s not forget that they have still been the BEST home ‘UNDER’ team in the entire league. The CHIEFS have gone 18-46-2 O/U in all home games since 2010... including 6-30-1 O/U when the OU line is > 43 points (and 2-14 O/U in L3Y).
With Denver off a Thursday game, we note that: NFL GAME 11 < division ROAD teams off a THURSDAY road game (Den) have gone 1-9 O/U.
We’re aware that Denver CRUSHED Arizona last week by 35 points...1-9 O/U s’2008: All < .666 AFC teams off a SU non-conference WIN of 21 > points (Den).
The fact that KC is laying a lot of points in a DIVISION game, with a HIGH OU line, takes us to this query: GAME 15 < big division HF’s of 6 > pts with a high OU line of 50 > pts (Chiefs) have gone 0-7 O/U in the last 4 years.
We are also aware that KC (A) just scored 45 pts at home last week... and (B) have scored 40+ pts in their last two games.
(A) 0-7 O/U s’2012: All Conference HF’s after scoring 45+ pts at home (Chiefs) when the OU line is 44 > pts...
(B) 1-8-1 O/U s’2013: All NFL teams who scored 40+ pts in EACH of their last 2 games (Chiefs), when the OU line is < 58 points.
KC comes in with a great 6-1 SU record (.857) while Denver is 3-4 SU (.428)... 0-9-1 O/U L3Y: All > .800 favs of -4 > pts in GAME 4 or greater (Chiefs) vs any < .500 opp (Broncos) when the OU line is 43 > pts.
This play is about ‘Game FLOW’ and OU VALUE: The Big DD division fav gets out to big lead and takes their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. Remember, Fortuna Fortis Adiuvat!