8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
#463-464
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
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In GAME THREE, we are hitting the Sunday Nighter for the second week in a row. And because of the NFL ‘flex’ option, the high-scoring CHIEFS will once again be playing in the Primetime game. This one doesn’t have quite the amount of ‘OU ammo’ from our database that last Sunday Night’s game had (We cashed a 3*** GOW week winner on the Chiefs / Patriots OVER). But it DOES have enough data to justify a normal 2** Play. Sharp OU bettors already know that just like our first game (Browns @ Bucs), this one features two of the WORST defenses in the entire league. It doesn’t get much better (for OVER bettors) than the #32 defense (KC allows 439.8 YPG and 34.6 ppg) versus the #28 defense (CINCY allows 409.2 YPG and 26.3 PPG).
The LEAD SITUATION from our database was also a highlight last week. It looks at the extremely HIGH Over / Under line. And until a game actually goes UNDER in this query, we should probably continue to ride the OVERS… Since late in the 200 season, there have been NINE games in the NFL with a HIGH OU line of 58 or more points. These games have gone a PERFECT 8-0-1.
In last week’s Sunday Nighter versus the Patriots, it was a ’40/40’ game for the Chiefs (they scored and allowed 40 or more points)… Since 2003, NFL home teams off a ‘40+/40+’ game (CHIEFS)have gone OVER 90% of the time (9-1 O/U).
In Kansas City’s last game, the OU line was VERY high (59.5 points), and the game still went Over the Total… 20-7-1 O/U since 1999 / 13-2 O/U since 2012: All NFL teams with an OU line of 44 > points off a road ‘OVER’ when the line in that last game was 54 or more points (CHIEFS).
And the fact that it was NEW ENGLAND in that last game is also significant t the Chiefs… NFL home dreams off a ROAD ‘Over’ vs the New England Patriots have gone 10-2 O/U in the last five years (CHIEFS).
For Cincinnati, they had the opposite result last week. They hosted Pittsburgh in a divisional game, and it went up going UNDER by a half a point… 7-1 O/U since 2015: All ROAD teams with a high OU line not > 49 points off a HOME ‘Under’ when the OU line was also > 49 points (BENGALS).
As of late, we have been considering the Over FIRST in games involving WINNING teams when the pointspread is less than a TD… 16-5-1 O/U last 2 years: All NFL non-division games, with a spread of 7 or LESS points (BENGALS @ CHIEFS)… when BOTH teams have current W/L percentages of .650 or better.
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