Wednesday, Oct. 17th
8:35pm ET / 5:35pm PT
Game Four of ALCS
BOSTON RED SOX w/ Porcello @ HOUSTON ASTROS w/ Morton
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Now that we’ve gone through the studs of each team’s pitching staff in this ALCS (like Sale, Verlander, Price, and Cole)… our Totals Team is ready to POUNCE. And we’re going OVER in tonight’s Game Four of the BOSTON / HOUSTON series. An ALCS that I might add… that has already gone a perfect 3-0 O/U in Games 1, 2, and 3. In fact, this series has had dynamite OVER numbers in the last 3+ seasons (Red Sox vs Astros: 36-14-1 O/U last 51 meetings). For us, it always starts with the ‘Man in Blue’. We’ve been patiently waiting for tonight’s Umpire since the assignments came in about 7 days ago. For this evening’s game, that Man in Blue will be MARK CARLSON.
We’ve been riding Carlson OVERS all season long in Baseball. And he’s been good to us. He comes in with a year-to-date record of 19-10-1 O/U (65% Overs). That record puts him in a tie for the third BEST ‘Over’ Umpire for the entire season amongst guys who have umped 15 or more games. #1 - Guccione (19-8 O/U)… #2 - Johnson and Wolf (20-9 O/U)… #3 - CARLSON, Danley, Hoye (19-10 O/U). Carlson is also one of only FIVE NLB Umpires that averaged 10.5 or more runs per game on the season. And with this being an American League game, we cannot ignore that he’s had his BEST ‘Over’ results in the Junior Circuit (9-3-1 O/U this year / 11.5 runs per game!). he closed the regular season with a 5-1 O/U recording his last six games… including a perfect 3-0 O.U In his final three (11.6 rpg).
We’ll be confident to continue riding HIGH-scoring individual team trends like this…
BOSTON: 14-3-1 O/U in last 18 games overall… 20-8-1 O/U last 29 vs WINNING (> .500) opponents… 8-1 O/U on Wednesday… 8-2 O/U after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game… 7-1-1 O/U last nine vs righties… and 4-0-2 O/U in their last six LCS games.
HOUSTON: 14-2-1 O/U last 17 versus > .600 opponents… 7-1 O/U on Wednesdays… 5-1-1 O/U last 7 home games… 4-1 O/U last 5 LCS games.
Boston starter Rick Porcello was one of the better OVER starting pitchers in the AL this season, with a record of 19-12-1 O/U. In the last two seasons, he’s made four starts versus the Astros. And his ERA in those four starts was 6.42…
Houston starter Charlie Morton has also made four starts vs the Red Sox in the last two season. And his ERA in those four starts was 5.40…