1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#259-260
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW YORK JETS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Both of these teams are off high-scoring results from last week that have a very good chance of repeating in Week Six. We could see a lot more passing yards than anticipated as well… with the Jets allowing 267 passing ypg and Indy allowing 283 passing ypg. As we wrote about in the Totals Tipsheet newsletter, we can’t ignore that all AFC non-division CONFERENCE games have already averaged 50.7 combined point per game in the 2018 season. This Colts / Jets SERIES has gone 7-1 O/U in the last eight meetings since the new millennium began… including a perfect 4-0 O/U in the last four played IN The Big Apple. Average combined point per game IN New York: 55.7! Sharp OU bettors already know that Indy’s BEST ‘Over’ numbers have been on the ROAD, while New York’s BEST ‘Over’ numbers have been at home.
The fact that the Colts played their last game on a THURSDAY is a key component to our call on the OVER. We also mentioned this aspect in Totals Tipsheet #6: NFL non-division teams playing off a THURSDAY non-division game that went OVER the Total (COLTS) have gone 26-5-1 O/U since 2010.
Last week’s road opponent for Indianapolis was the mighty Patriots… Since the 2013 season, NFL teams who played in the ROAD vs the New England Patriots the previous week (COLTS) have gone 25-18 O/U… including 16-4 O/U in non-division play… and 9-1 O/U in there first half of the season (Game 8 or less).
The host jets are off a big home win vs Denver last week, while the Colts are off a big road loss… 10-2 O/U since 2005: All NFL home teams (with a line of < 5 pts) off a SU home win of 14 > pts (JETS) vs any opponent off a SU road loss of 14 > pts (COLTS).
So the Jets SCORED 34 points last week, and the Colts ALLOWED 38 points… 9-1 O/U since 2005: All NFL non-division home favorites of < 13 points who SCORED 34+ pts last week (JETS) vs any opponent who ALLOWED 34+ pts last week (COLTS)… when the OU line is in the range of 44 to 47 points.
After scoring 12 points, 17 points, and 123 points in Games 2, 3, and 4… the Jets exploded for 34 last week in their win vs the Broncos… 9-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME EIGHT or less non-division teams who scored 31 > pts, 17 < pts, and 17 < pts in their last three games (JETS).