3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
#187-188
Baylor Bears @ Texas Longhorns
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 61 or more points
In Game Three, the Totals Train heads to the Lone Star State for a BIG 12 Conference matchup. At 3:30pm ET, it’ll be the hot Texas Longhorns hosting the Baylor Bears. The OU line for this conference game opened at 61 points. As we type this on Wednesday, it’s still right around that same number (60.5 to 61 points). A lot of Totals bettors will ask how we can go UNDER the Total in the highest-scoring conference in the land (BIG 12)? By picking and choosing our spots carefully. Case in point: We were on the UNDER in the Iowa State / TCU game two Saturdays ago… and came away with the win. And this contest has many similarities to the game that we just covered (Notre Dame vs Pitt). At last look, Texas was a big conference favorite of at least 2 TD’s in this game. So once again, the ‘game script’ perspective is an indicator of a lower-than-expected final score. Ad let’s not forget the SERIES. Texas and Baylor have played each other five times in the last five seasons. ALL FIVE of those games have gone UNDER the Total. Average OU line: 64.2… Average combined points: only 45.8… That means the average game between these two teams has gone UNDER by -18.4 ppg! Yes, we know that the Longhorns were just in a shootout versus Oklahoma last week (final score 48 to 45). But they’ve been the BEST ‘Under team in the Big 12. 13-39-1 O/U last 53 conference games… 3-11-1 O/U last 15 HOME games… 6-24 O/U off an ATS win win their last game… 0-7 O/U after passing for 280+ yards in their last game… and 2-10 O/U after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score is: Texas 37 - Baylor 23. Our database models forecast a final score of 34 to 20. That’s about 7 points lower than the current OU line… which triggers a 2** Play for our service.