Tuesday, Oct. 9th
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Sunbelt Conference
Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Arkansas State Red Wolves
2** Play on: ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES plus the points
*Optimum lime: +10.5 or more points
Our writeup for this game is slightly abbreviated because we still have an issue of the Totals Tipsheet that we need to get out today. The bottom line is: This pointspread is about 7 to 8 points TOO high. We’ll give the Mountaineers credit for a very good season this far (3-1 SU). they hung tough against Penn State in this first game of the season, losing by only 7 points as an underdog of +24. Since then, they have won three straight games… and covered the spread in all THREE of ‘em. But consider the OPPOSITION. One win was against a losing Charlotte team from Conference USA. One win was against the worst team in the Sunbelt (South Alabama is 1-5). And the last win was against a FCS opponent (Gardner Webb). So their stats and numbers are severely skewed based in that easy opposition. At the very least, the host RED WOLVES from Arkansas State have already played ALABAMA… played on the road against Tulsa… played at home against UNLV… and played the 2nd best team in the entire Sunbelt Conference in Georgia Southern. In strength of schedule, Appalachian State’s is ranked #117… while Arkansas State is ranked #79. Tonight’s game could very well be a early preview for the inaugural Sunbelt conference title game on December 1st. As long as we have the reigning Sunbelt Offensive Player of the Year on our side (Red Wolves QB Justice Hansen), then this dog has the ‘chops’ to come away not just with the ATS win… but an OUTRIGHT underdog win, to boot. Based on the current pointspread and OU line the predicted final score in the game is Appalachian State 35 - Arkansas State 24.5. Our database models and simulations point to a score that’s much close. More like:
APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS 33
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES 30