2** OAKLAND RAIDERS plus the points
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, Oct. 7th
4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
#467
After passing last week in the NFL, our Dawg Pound service is back in play for Week Five action. And we will confidently fade one of the worst FAVORITES in the league. Whenever they are ‘catching’ points (as in underdog), we will always look to play ON the Chargers. But when they are in the role of ‘chalk’. It’s GO-THE-OTHER-WAY time. The LA CHARGERS have gone 5-16-1 ATS in the last fie years as FAVORITES. That includes 2-10 ATS as favs of -6 or LESS points… and a PERFECT 0-5 ATS in the last two seasons.
Our first database query looks at DIVISION games during this particular Week of the Season… GAME FIVE division road underdogs of > 7 points (RAIDERS are currently +5 to 5.5 points) have gone 10-1 ATS in the last ten seasons.
When King Creole was looking for a potential OU angle for this game (and the fact that it has a HIGH OU line of 52.5 to 53 points), nothing came up from a Totals perspective. But we couldn’t help but notice that: Already THIS season, NFL UNDERDOGS with a HIGH OU line of 52 or more points (RAIDERS) have gone 6-1-1 ATS…
In last week’s home win over the Cleveland Browns, Oakland scored 45 points… In the last 2 seasons, GAME FOUR or greater road teams who scored 40+ points at HOME the previous week (RAIDERS) have gone 10-1-1 ATS…
Next up for the Raiders is a trip ‘Across the Pond’ for a neutral site meeting (Tottenham Stadium, London) against the Seattle Seahawks… In the last 3 years, NFL teams BEFORE a neutral site regular-season game (RAIDERS) have gone 11-2-1 ATS… including a PERFECT 5-0 ATS as DOGS of > 1 point (RAIDERS).
Last week, the Chargers also ’s**t the bed’ as favorites. Yes, they BARELY beat the San Francisco 49ers. But they never came close to covering the 10-point spread. Final score in that game was 29 to 27… 1-9-1 ATS since 2011: All NFL favorites off a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite role… in which they scored AND allowed 27 > points (Chargers). These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-6 ATS in the last five years.
The current pointspread in this game of -5 to -5.5 points is in the ‘dead zone’. that small area in between 4 and 6 points. We are kind of hoping that the lumen STAYS in this dead zone. Because… NFL same-DIVISION home favorites of -5 to -5.5 points (Chargers) have gone 2-13 ATS since 2008 in GAME 11 or less when their OPPONENT is playing with REVENGE (like the RAIDERS are). These games have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS when the home team is .500 or better on the season (like the Chargers).