1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#461-462
ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We’re right back on the Atlanta ‘OVER’ bandwagon in Week Five (80 and 73 combined points in their last two games). Not rated quite as high as last week’s 3*** GOM, but still worthy of a normal 2** Play…. even though the OU line is going thru the roof. On the flip side, the Steelers let us down last week in their putrid Sunday Night home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. That 3* Loss on the Steelers / Ravens OVER was our ONLY O/U ‘blemish’ last week in College Football and the NFL (Our OU plays went 7-1!). With that said, we are back ON the Steeler’s OVER for the 2nd week in a row. I can’t guarantee a win, but we certainly have the database ‘ammo’ to back us up. I CAN however guarantee this: (1) Pittsburgh will NOT score 14 or less points at home this week... (2) And they will NOT be SHUT OUT at home in the 2nd half (like they were last week).
Obviously, the bar has been set extremely HIGH for us Totals bettors this week (opened at 55.5 / bet up to 57-57.5 by Monday night). Like our first game, you’ll need to get your play in ASAP.
Our first few database queries look at HIGH OU-lined games.
(1) Since 2000, there has been 11 NFL games in which the OU line was 57.5 or more points. Those games have gone 9-1-1 O/U (90% Overs).
(2) AFC home favs of -3 > pts (STEELERS) with a high OU line of 54 > pts have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U s’2012 versus any non-division opponent (FALCONS).
(3) And GAME FIVES in which the home team is favored (STEELERS) have gone 8-1 O/U s’2011 when the OU line is a high 50 or more points.
This is one of only two games this week in which both teams have W/L percentages of .333 or less… 16-2 O/U last 6 years: All GAME FIVES when BOTH teams are.333 or worse on the season (FALCONS @ STEELERS).
Pittsburgh was a division home fav last week, and ‘s**t the bed’ against the Ravens… 18-4-2 O/U since 2010: All non-division home favorites off a SU division home FAV loss (STEELERS) when the OU line is 39 > points.
Atlanta FINALLY hits the road off 3 straight home games in a row (in which there were 55 pts, 80 pts, and 73 pts)… 8-0 O/U last 4 years: All NFL road underdogs of > 1 point off 3 STRAIGHT home games in a row (FALCONS), when the OU line is > 45 points.
No wonder the OU line is so high: This is the ONLY game on the Week Five schedule in which BOTH teams are ranked in the BOTTOM 5 on defense (Pit: 421 YPG allowed / Atl: 403 YPG allowed)... and BOTH are allowing 29 or MORE ppg as well.