#909-910
4:15pm ET / 1:15pm PT
Game Two / NLDS
COLORADO ROCKIES w/ Anderson @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS w/ Chacin
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
One of our favorite post-season OVER situations is in play for today’s Game Two of the BREWERS / ROCKIES series. And it makes sense based on condition of both team’s pitching staffs. That situation is: Play the OVER in an afternoon post-season Baseball game when the SAME two team played each other the previous night. These games have gone OVER at a 64% rate since the start of the 2001 Playoffs. The results are even BETTER if that game from the previous night went into EXTRA INNINGS. That will indeed be the case this afternoon in Milwaukee. The Brewers and Rockies played each other yesterday, and the final result was a 3-2 score in 10 innings. Both teams ended up using SIX total pitchers each, so that puts added pressure on today’s starters.
The Man behind the dish plays a vital role in this afternoon’s game as well. The scheduled home plate Umpire for Game Two of this Brewers / Rockies series will be KERWIN DANLEY. On there list of the best OVER Umps this season, Danley’s name is right up there with the Big Boys. His overall record on the season is 19-9-1 O/U (68% Overs). That makes him the 4th BEST Over Umpire for the year (for guys who worked 15 or more games). Right behind Chris Guccione (19-8 O/U), Adrian Johnson (20-9), and Jim Wolf (20-9 O/U). Danley’s HIGH average of 10.9 combined runs per game is also SECOND highest of all 89 full-time MLB Umpires. He also closed the season with a flourish for OVER bettors. Since the beginning of July, Danley’s final 14 games of the regular season went 11-3 O/U… with a HIGH average of 13.2 combined runs per game. He also went 6-1 O/U on FRIDAYS this season.
We like the fact that Colorado has chosen southpaw Tyler Anderson as their starter for this afternoon’s Game Two. Reason One, he has basically struggled all season with an ERA of 4.55… and had a really bad month of August (11.04 ERA). Reason Two, he allowed 30 home runs this season, which is the 4th MOST by any pitcher (behind Bundy, Shields, and Fiers)… Reason Three, we’re riding Anderson in his BEST two OVER situations this season: He went 10-5 O/U in his ROAD starts this year (5.02 ERA) and 8-4 O/U in his DAYTIME starts. And Reason Four: MILWAUKEE has been banging around left-hand pitchers to the tune of a .330 team batting average AND an average of 8.5 rpg in their last ten games (5-1 O/U lasts at home vs southpaws). Jhoulys Chacin of the host Brewers is on a current 6-2 O/U run in his last eight HOME starts, including 4-1 O/U versus > .500 opponents.