7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT
#207-208
STANFORD CARDINAL @ NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
When I was doing my CFB O/U Handicapping earlier this week, this game slipped through the cracks. It never came close to my radar. That kind of makes sense, given each team’s current OU record on the season. Stanford comes in 1-3 O/U, and Notre Dame has the same record (1-3 O/U). So a look at those records might prompt the Average Joe to look to the Under FIRST in this game. And that’s what appears to have happened. At last look, there was about 65% of all wagers in this game on the Under… and about 61% of the total CASH wagered as well. With that said, take a look at the line movement. It opened at about 50 points, and has gone up to about 52 (as we type this on Saturday night). There’s some sharp money that’s driving this OU line upward. And there’s some interesting TWISTS for both teams on offense this season that point to a higher-than-anticipated final score.
Notre Dame started the 2018 season with UNDERS in each of their first three games. The major reason for our switch to the OVER in this game is based on the QB position. Brandon Wimbush started the season as the Fighting Irish starting QB. He struggled big-time, going 42 for 76 in his three games, with a TD to INT radio of 1 to 4. After barely scraping by Ball State (24-16) and Vanderbilt (22-17) in Games 2 and 3, it was obvious that a change was needed. Enter Ian Brook. He got the call from head coach Brian Kelly last week on the ROAD vs Wake Forest, and he jumpstarted the offense. To the tune of 566 yards and 56 freakin points. Brook went 25 for 34 for 325 yards. He stands to have a great game vs a Stanford team that was CARVED UP last week on defense by Oregon. Duck QB Justin Herbert was 25 for 27 vs the Cardinal before the overtime period, He finished 26 for 33 for 346 yards. Stanford’s defense’s CAN indeed be scored upon by a good quarterback. And not only that, but Notre Dame’s #1 ‘Home Run’ threat weapon will be BACK for this game. After sitting out a suspension, RB Dexter Williams is fresh… he’s ready… and he can take it to the house on any play.
On the flip side, Stanford’s 2018 offense has had their problems getting pre-season Heisman Hopeful BRYCE LOVE going. He’s rushed for ‘only’ 84.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. But that’s actually good for us OVER bettors. Number One, he can still (at any time) break off a very big run at any time… and he DID rush for 2188 yards one year ago. However, the difficulties on the ground have encouraged the Stanford offense to open things up a lot more than in seasons past. Junior QB K. J. Costello was basically a ‘game manager’ in the signal-caller role last year. But in 2018, Costello has come out guns blazing. In 2017, he threw for only 1573 yards and had a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. In just 4 games THIS season, Costello has already thrown for 1056 yards, and has a 10-3 TD-INT ratio with his increased usage. Stanford has scored 30 or more points in THREE of their four games. 70% of Costello’s passing TD’s have gone to senior wideout JJ Arcxega-Whiteside, who’s averaged a whopping 24 yards per catch (17 receptions for 408 yards). He’s a big-play threat every time he touched the ball as well.
We’ve got a (relatively) low OU Line in this one to deal with. The weather in South Bend for the 7:30pm ET kickoff should be perfect (55 to 60 degrees / winds no stronger than 4 MPH). It’s a non-conference battle of 4-0 teams. Both offenses have playmakers who can find the end zone quickly and consistently. Yes, we’re fading a lot of TRENDS in this game that point to the Under. But as it stands, I still think there’s about 7-12 points of VALUE on the Over.