#171-172
7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
BIG 12 Conference
Iowa State Cyclones @ TCU Horned Frogs
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU Line: 47 or more
It’s pretty rare for us to find an UNDER to our liking in a traditionally high-scoring Conference like the Big 12. But this one fits the bill. We’ve got the game between TCU and IOWA STATE ending up right around 40 total points. And it seems like the oddsmakers are in agreement. The OU line for this game opened at 49 points, and has since come down to 46.5-47 (as we type this on Friday afternoon). We think there is still enough meat on the bone to warrant a 2* Play. If it had stayed at 49, we might have rated this one a little higher. As it is, we’re on two of the best defenses in this conference… who have combined to go UNDER in 67% of their games this season. And we won’t forget last year’s meeting either. In that one, the OU line was similar (48 points), and the final score was just 14 to 7. The series has gone 1-4 O/U in the last five years. Iowa State’s last SIX road games have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U. And TCU has been a solid UNDER Team in Conference play (6-20 O/U last 26 conference games). Based on the spread and OU line, the predicted final score is: TCU 28.5 - Iowa State 18.
Our database models and simulations point to a lower-scoring outcome:
TCU HORNED FROGS 27
IOWA STATE CYCLONES 14
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