Sunday, Sept. 23rd
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#473-474
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
This is NOT a good scheduling situation for the traveling Raiders. They played a very physical Monday Night home game agains the Rams in Week One. Then they traveled to the high altitudes of the Rocky Mountains to tale on the Denver Broncos. Now, they are tasked to fly across the country… across three time zones… to play the Miami Dolphins in a 10:00am (‘body clock’ time) Sunday early kickoff. As we have talked about numerous times in our PLAYBOOK Totals Tipsheet newsletter, these very difficult TIME ZONE games have resulted in a LOT of points being scored in a Sunday early kickoff. We’ll get to that query in a minute. But for now, let's check out the OU tendencies of this series. OAKLAND and MIAMI have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the last five meetings versus each other. Average OU line: 41.5… Average combined points: 49.8… Average OU MARGIN: +7.3 points per game.
Our first three queries pertain to this particular Game of the Season, and all three are STRONG when it comes to OVER results…
1) GAME THREE undefeated home favorites (like the DOLPHINS) have gone 24-9-1 O/U since the 2007 season.
2) GAME THREE teams off back-to-back UNDERS have gone 53-22-1 O/U since 2007 (RAIDERS)…
3) GAME THREE teams who are WINLESS on the season (RAIDERS) have gone 9-1 O/U in the last four years (and 6-0 O/U in last 2 years) as road UNDERDOGS of +13 or less points.
I briefly touched on what could be the most important aspect of this game. A West Coast team tracking across three time zone and playing an opponent from the East Time Zone… 18-3 O/U last three seasons: All ‘WEST to EAST’ road underdogs of +13 or less points (RAIDERS) in the first HALF of the season (GAME 9 or less). Just so you know, OAKLAND has gone 6-1 O/U in these games as road underdogs when the OU line is > 50 points.
We also mentioned how Oakland played in the high altitudes last week, in a low-scoring loss to the Denver Broncos (final score 20 to 19)… In the last four seasons, NFL road teams who just went UNDER in a road game versus the Denver Broncos the previous week (OAKLAND) have gone a perfect 6-0-1 O/U.
We are certainly aware that (A) Oakland has yet to score 20 points in a game this season… while (B) Miami has yet to ALLOW more than 20 points. Put both situations together, and you get: 12-2 O/U last 4 years for all ROAD teams who SCORED 20 < pts in their last 2 games (RAIDERS) versus any opponent who ALLOWED 20 < pts in their last 2 games (DOLPHINS)… when the OU line is in the range of 41 to 55 points.
Finally, we are also aware that Miami ‘Went Low’ in their division road dog win against theJets last week. That’s ok by us. Because… in the last years, AFC non-division home favorites off a division road DOG win that also went ‘Under the Total’ (DOLPHINS) have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U versus any opponent off a SU loss (RAIDERS).
MIAMI has gone a solid 24-6-2 O/U at HOME in the first half of the season (Game 8 or less)… OAKLAND has gone 9-1 O/U as non-division UNDERDOGS in the 2nd of back-to-back ROAD games.