OVER THE TOTAL
Sunday,Sept. 23rd
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#465-466
TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS / 39 points
Let's face it. A lot of the SQUARES will be going UNDER in this game. But our database disagrees. This ‘Unlikely' (to some) OVER will be going down here in the Sunshine State, as the 2-0 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS host division rival Tennessee. We can’t ignore that this has been a pretty high-scoring series as of late. The last 5 meetings between the Jags and Titans have gone 4-1 O/U... with an avg OU line of 42.7... and a gaudy combined point total of 54.4. That’s an avg MARGIN of +11.7 points per game!
This is another one of those LOW-LINED affairs that are going in Week Two (opened at 39.5 points).
18-4 O/U since 2006: All GAME THREE home favorites of > 1 point when the OU line is < 41 points (JAGUARS).
We highly recommend that you get your OU action in soon as possible. In addition to the low OU line, a couple more ‘Week Two-SPECIFIC’ situations point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. I first wrote about these situations in this year’s 2018 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Magazine.
(1) Week Two UNDEFEATED home favorites of > 3 points (JAGUARS) have home 17-4 O/U since 2007 (and a perfect 6-0 O/U in L3Y)...
(2) Week Two DIVISION games have gone an amazing 19-4 O/U in the last 5 years (TITANS @ JAGS), including 14-1 O/U when the home team is FAVORED.
There’s a big line swing in this game for the host Jaguars. They were home UNDERDOGS last week versus the Patriots. One week later, and they are laying close to a touchdown at home (-6.5 on the opening line).
10-1-2 O/U since 2009: All big home favorites of -6 > points who were a home UNDERDOG the previous week (JAGUARS), when the OU line is < 44 points.
Now, let’s look at Tennessee. From an individual TEAM standpoint, we will be on the Titans’ BEST ‘Over’ situation of the last decade. TENNESSEE has gone 17-4-1 O/U since the 2009 season when the OU LINE is less than (<) 41 points.That includes 10-2 O/U when they are DOGS in these low-lined games.
Last season, Tennessee’s first ‘go round’ of DIVISION action went 3-0 O/U, with an average of 60.7 combined ppg. It was the LAST 3 division games of the year that were lower-scoring (32.7 ppg).