Thursday, Sept. 20th
8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
#301-302
NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We’re going ‘Against the Grain’ in ALL THREE of our Totals Tipsheet OU plays in this week issue #3, and it starts with one of the unlikeliest games on the board. That would be the THURSDAY NIGHT game between the CLEVELAND BROWNS and NEW YORK JETS. Get your play in at the current OU line of 39-39.5 (as of Tue afternoon)… before it potentially crosses over into the KEY OU range of 40 to 41 points.
The last time the Brownies were actually FAVORED in a game was exactly one YEAR ago when they were -1 vs the Colts (also in Week 3). Total points in that one: 59. In fact, Cleveland has gone a perfect 4-0 O/U in their last four (rare) Conference FAV roles, and also a perfect 5-0 O/U in Game Three over the last five seasons. On the flip side, the Jets BEST ‘Over’ situation has been on the ROAD when the OU line is LESS than (<) 41 points (6-0 O/U L5Y). Also 16-5 O/U in Game Fives over the last 20+ seasons, and solid OVER team when playing off a LOSS in their last game (7-2 O/U).
Our first database query looks for any one-sided OU tendencies on this particular Day of the Week. And this one jumps out at us: NFL non-division home favorites (BROWNS) on THURSDAYS have gone 11-1 O/U in the last 6 years when the OU line is in the range of 39 to 50 points.
At last look, the OU line in this one was a LOW 39 to 39.5 points. Don’t let that low line scare you off.... Because, NFL Game Threes have gone 32-9-1 O/U since 2006 when the OU line is LESS than (<) 41 points. That includes 18-4 O/U when the home team is FAVORED (like the Browns are).
Cleveland might still be winless on the season, but they DID actually cash ATS WINS in each of their first two games (0-1-1 SU / 2-0 ATS). ... NFL WINLESS (.000) favorites of > 1 point off BB ATS wins (BROWNS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U since 1993.
After starting the season with 48 points on the road in Week One, the Jets were held to just 12 points at home last week.... 9-1 O/U since 1994: All NFL non-division teams who scored 14 < pts at home... and 40 > pts on the road in their last 2 games (JETS) when the OU line is 48 or less points.
New York was a division home favorite vs Miami last Sunday. They lost that game (20-12), and it also went Under the Total.... 6-0 O/U last two seasons: All NFL underdogs of < 5 points off a SU division home fav LOSS that went ‘Under the Total’ (JETS).