Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Monday, Sept. 17th
8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT
#289-290
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
2** Play on: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
As we type this on Saturday afternoon, the BEARS are currently laying -3.5 points in this Monday Night game versus the Seahawks. Obviously, that number of 3.5 is KEY. Yes, we’ll stand by this play regardless if what the pointspread is when they kick it off at 8:15pm ET. But SHARP bettors already know the significance and DIFFERENCE between a 3… and 3.5 in a NFL game. It's the same in a game where the spread is around 7 points. The key number of THREE is easily the most COMMON margin of victory in a NFL game… and the number of SEVEN is 2nd-most common. Since the 1981 season, NFL games have finished exactly on THREE 15.18% of the time. That’s better than 1 out every SIX games that end right up on THREE. That's also almost DOUBLE the next most common number (SEVEN comes up 8.41% of the time). So the significance of grabbing the +3.5 or more points with the Seahawks cannot be overstated.
Obviously, we like the potential of the new-look Bears and their Head Coach (Mike Nagy). They have the pieces in place to be a potential Playoff team… but NOT until next season or 2020. Until then, these ‘Cubbies’ will be going through some growing pains. Like other sharp bettors, we LOVE playing on Chicago as mid-to-large UNDERDOGS. But when it comes to the role of chalk, these Bears are not quite ’Ready For Prime Time’… The BEARS have gone 5-16-2 ATS as home favorites since the 2012 season. That includes 1-6 ATS in the last three years… and 1-9 ATS versus any opponent off a SU Loss (like SEATTLE). Chicago is also 2-10 ATS in their history as MONDAY favorites of -6 or less points.
On the other hand, the Seahawks have been EXTREMELY profitable when catching a field goal or more. BEST in the league, in fact! SEATTLE has gone 18-3-3 ATS since the 2011 season as underdogs of +3 or more points. Not only that, but they are ranked in the Top Three in the league in profitability on this particular Day of the Week. In their history, the SEAHAWKS are 19-10-2 ATS on MONDAY NIGHTS… including 8-1-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss in their last game.
My first database query looks at short road underdogs on Mondays…
10-1 ATS last 5 years: All MONDAY NIGHT non-division road underdogs of < 6 points (SEAHAWKS) versus any home opponent off a SU loss (Bears).
So both teams are off last-second, CLOSE losses of 3 points (Seattle) and 1 point (Chicago), respectively… 0-5 ATS since 1992: All NFL home favorites of < 7 points when BOTH teams (Bears + Seahawks) are off close ROAD loss of 3 or less points.
This has been a very profitable week of the season to garb the points when BOTH teams lost their first game of the season… 8-26-1 ATS since 1992: All GAME TWO non-division home favorites when BOTH teams are off a Game One LOSS (Chicago and Seattle). These teams are also 2-12 ATS when playing with Revenge (like the Bears are).
Don’t look for much of a ‘Mile High LETDOWN’ for Seattle here… In the last three years, NFL road teams have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS AFTER playing a road game IN Denver (SEAHAWKS).
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