Sunday, Sept. 16th
4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
#281-282
DETROIT LIONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
The OU line for Detroit’s visit out to the West Coast opened at 48 points. We got our play in at that line. As we type this on Friday afternoon, the line has risen slightly… to 48.5 to 49 points. So get your play in ASAP. I talked briefly about this game in this week’s PLAYBOOK Totals Tipsheet newsletter… and the the potential high-scoring impact for East TIME ZONE teams making the cross country trip to a West TIME ZONE opponent. This will be the first of about 14-15 games that takes place in the 2018 season. There were 11 such games last year, and they ended up gong 8-3 O/U (73% Overs). That’s not a bad OVER percentage. And here’s the query out of our database:
Since 2012, WESTERN Time Zone home favorites (NINERS are -6 in this game) versus any EASTERN Time Zone opponent (LIONS) have gone 33-14-1 O/U (70% Overs) when the OU line is 49 or less points.
Next up, we search for any OU Patterns or Tendencies for NFL games in which BOTH teams LOST their first game of the season (like these two teams did last week)…. 28-12-1 O/U All-Time / 15-3 OU since 2009: All WEEK TWO non-division games in which BOTH teams are off a SU loss on Week One (NINERS and LIONS), when the OU Line is greater than 40 points. When the HOME team is favored by -13 or LESS points (like SAN FRAN), these games have gone OVER the Total at a 90% percentage (9-1 O/U).
Detroit hosted a MONDAY NIGHT game in Week One (vs the Jets)… 8-1-1 O/U last two years: All NFL non-division ROAD teams off a Monday Night HOME game (LIONS), when the OU line is > 43 points.
In that Monday night ‘beat down’, the host Lions allowed the mighty(?) Jets to score 48 freakin’ points…. In the last three seasons, NFL teams who allowed 45 or MORE points in a HOME game (LIONS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in their next game.
So BOTH teams are off Week One losses of 8 or more points each… 7-0 O/U since 2013: All NFL home favorites of < 10 points off a SU LOSS of 8 > pts (NINERS)… versus any opponent off a SU LOSS of 8 > pts that ALSO went ‘OVER the Total’ (LIONS).
San Francisco plays in the NFC West Division while Detroit plays in the NFC North Division… 20-7-1 O/U since 2002: All NFC WEST Division home favorites of -6 > pts (NINERS) versus any NFC NORTH Division opponent (LIONS). These games have gone 11-3-1 O/U when the OU line is 44 > its, including 8-1-1 O/U in the last ten seasons.
Big line MOVE for the host 49ers. They were road underdogs of almost a touchdown last week vs the Vikings… and move to a role of home favorite of almost a full touchdown… 9-1 O/U since 2008: All NFL non-division home favorites of -6 > points who were a road UNDERDOG of +6 > points in their last game (NINERS), when the OU line is > 43 points.