Saturday, Sept. 15th
Non-Conference play
3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
#145-146
BOISE STATE BRONCOS @ OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
The OU line for this non-conference affair between teams from the Mountain West and Big 12 opened at 66 points. At that number, we were hesitant to make a play. The line has since moved down, but is starting to come back up again. It bottomed out at 62.5 points. As of Wednesday afternoon, its come back top a full poem to the current line of 63.5 points. At that line, our database models suggest this one should be at least 10 points HIGHER. And that signals (a) a ‘buy sign’ on the OVER for us… and (b) the justification for a move into Best Bet territory (Our FIRST College Football BEST BET of the 2018 season). Marc and I covered this game on this week’s ‘Against the Spread’ podcast. The more I looked into the game, the more I liked it.
Current statistics should be taken with a grain of salt. Each team has had two non-conference games thus far, and both teams are now a combined 4-0 O/U on the season. Boise State went OVER by +27.5 points in their opener versus Troy… and OVER by +6 points in last week’s win over Connecticut. We tried stepping in front of Boise State with the UNDER last week, but came up on the wrong end of the stock. Our logic was that they would shut DOWN the Huskies (They did)… get out to a commanding early lead (were up 41-0 at the half)… and then take their foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half (They did… scoring only 21 points)… in preparation for this week’s potential ’Stillwater SHOOTOUT’. On the flip side, Oklahoma State went OVER in Game One vs Missouri State (scoring 55 points), and OVER in Game Two against South Alabama (also scoring 55 points). Both of these teams have basically ‘cleared their benches’ in the and half of their games thus far. What is the scoring potential when both offenses go full 60 minutes? 70+ points… 80+ points… 100+ points? It’s hard not to love the OVER when both teams are already averaging more than 600 yards per game on offense.
We’ve seen points by the truckload so far this season. And don’t look for the hostile Stillwater environment to rattle the Broncos at all. Not with a veteran, experienced SENIOR signal-caller like Brett Rypien at the helm. He’s been very dialed-in thus far this season. If he keeps hitting receivers in stride like he has, the T. Boone Pickens Stadium scoreboard will light upon like a video game. On the other hand, there is no more Mason Rudolph at QB for the host Cowboys. Its all on the shoulders of Taylor Cornelius. And it doesn’t hurt its that this QB is ALSO a SENIOR. He’s already averaging 364 passing yards per game. And at 6’ 6”, and 232 pounds… he also adds a second dimension that’s very hard to bring down on defense (like a Cam Newton).
As I mentioned on the podcast, BOISE STATE is now on current runs of 5-1 O/U in their last six NON-conference games… 4-1 O/U in their last five games in SEPTEMBER… 4-1 O/U in their last fie true ROAD games… and 21-7-2 O/U after rushing for 200+ yards their last game. And to seal the deal (in this case, bump it up to Best Bet territory)… I also touched on this aspect: Since the start of the new millennium, Oklahoma State has been the best HOME ‘Over’ team in ALL of College Football. Over the last 17 years, Cowboy HOME GAMES have gone 72-32-2 O/U. And that’s in ALL games. Conference games, Non-Conference games, Home FAVS. and Home DOGS. Its hard to believe it, but the numbers are even better in the first month of the season. OKY STATE (17-3 O/U at home in September = 85% OVERS).
According to the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: Oklahoma State 33 - Boise State 30.5. Our database models and simulations differ very significantly. Our projected score is:
BOISE STATE BRONCOS 39
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 38
That's a difference of about 13.5 points, easily triggering a BEST BET on the OVER.