Our Week One TRIPLE PLAY of UNDERS is highlighted by this AFC North Division affair between the Steelers and Browns. Sharp OU bettors already know that it’s a historically low-scoring series (3-8 O/U L11). Even better, the last five games IN Cleveland have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U, with an average OU margin of -7.3 PPG.
We also know that the explosive Pittsburgh offense is merely AVERAGE on the road. Last 4 years at home: 29.8 ppg, 28.4 ppg, 30.6 ppg. and 30.4 ppg (avg of 29.8). But L4Y on the ROAD: 22.5 ppg, 20.8 ppg, 21.2 ppg, 22.4 ppg (avg of 21.7). So they have averaged less than a FULL TD in their road games, and it’s no surprise that the STEELERS are an UNDER-whelming 1-17-1 O/U in last 4 years as ROAD FAVS of -3 > points (including 0-12-1 O/U L2Y!).
On the flip side, the Brownies have been one of the league’s best UNDER teams at FirstEnergy Stadium. In fact, the last 12 Cleveland HOME games have gone 1-11 O/U... with an average of only 35.6 ppg. That’s a pretty comfortable margin for us, considering the OU line for this game is around 46.5 points (It’s come down a HALF point from the opener).
With Pittsburgh currently laying a hefty -5.5 to -6 points in this game, one of our most profitable and reliable UNDER situations is in play: 6-27-2 O/U since 2011: All Game 15 or less big DIVISION road favorites of -5 or more points (Steelers). When the OU line in these games is > 43 points, the results improve to 3-19 O/U (86% Unders). There were EIGHT of these games last season, and ALL 8 of ‘em went UNDER the Total (0-8 O/U / avg margin of -8.8 PPG)!
This is a not a division that’s known for shootouts when facing each other. AFC NORTH division games have gone 21-48-4 O/U s’2007 when the OU line is > 40 points. That includes 1-10-1 O/U in the last 3 years in GAME 12 or less when the OU is > 42 points.
We certainly expect the Browns to open things up on offense a lot more this year, after adding some great pieces in the off-season (not mention bringing Todd Haley and Ken Zampese onboard). But that’s later in the year. NOT this week.