3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
#347-348
CBS TV
Georgia Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 56 or higher
In all three of our Saturday College Football OU Plays, we are FADING (going against) current line moves. In two out of three cases, SIGNIFICANT line moves. Case in point: S Carolina / Georgia opened at 52.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 56 - 56.5…. Florida-International / Old Dominion opened at 58 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has fallen to 51.5 to 52. Even in our third game: Connecticut / Boise State opened at 62 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 63.5 to 64. Like MANY of our O/U Plays, we play on VALUE. And thats the way it should be. Trying to find value in the line. This is one of the reasons that unlike the NFL, we release our College Football OU Plays as LATE in the week as possible. To track the line movement from the opening day (Mondays or Tuesdays) all the way to the day before the games (Friday).
In the first game, it’s one of those RARE early-season conference games in the SEC. To early in the season for either team to run up the score (for ‘style’ points). What we DO know is that deposit the line move, we have tow of the best defenses in the SEC squaring off against each other. Let year’s game between Georgia and South Carolina ended up with a low final score of just 24-10 (OU line was 44.5). This Saturday’s OU line is more than 10 point HIGHER, and we can’t see the justification for that. Not with a Gamecock’s DEFENSE (piloted by Will Muschamp) that took a major step forward last year. They went from 26.5 ppg allowed in 2016 to only 2o.7 ppg allowed LAST year. It was their fourth STRAIGHT year that their defense has improved from the previous season. SOUTH CAROLINA is now on a 4-14 O/U run in their last 18 SEC games… 1-8 O/U In their last nine vs WINNING opponents… 8-21 O/U playing off a SU win… 3-13 O/U after rushing for 200+ yards… and 2-8-1 O/U in their last 11 SEPTEMBER games. And speaking of the first month of the season, GEORGIA is 1-10 O/U in THEIR last 11 games in September to boot. Also 5-16 O/U after allowing < 20 points in their last game and 5-21-1 O/U after allowing < 170 passing yards. Our database models have this game finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of 48 to 51 points. That’s about 6-8 points LESS than the current OU line… and triggers a 2** Play for our service.