7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT
ESPN TV
#913-914
NEW YORK METS w/ Vargas @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES w/ Pivetta
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We’re looking for an National League East Division SLUGFEST tonight on ESPN TV, as the PHILLIES host the METS at 7:05pm ET. For our Totals Team, we’re confidently seeking our 11th WIN IN A ROW on the Bases. Last 22 plays in All Sports: 20-1-1…. Year-to-date in Major League Baseball: 46-19-4 (70%). We are one of a handful of ‘Cappers who believe in complete transparency, so our YTD records can always be verified at the Sport Monitor’s website: https://www.thesportsmonitor.com/pages/subcat_season_recaps.php?cid=16
We are not gonna pass up an opportunity to play on one of the BEST ‘Over’ Umpires in all of Major League Baseball. But just as a normal 2** Play. We don’t want to give a lot back in what we have won over the last four months. We’ve done good enough in Baseball to already BANKROLL the entire 2018 NFL and College Football season. So this is just enough of a small wager to make the game enjoyable for those of us who will be watching it on TV. This is actually GAME FIVE of this series. The first two games (Thursday DOUBLE-HEADER) both went OVER the Total. Then, the Friday and Saturday game between these two team both went UNDER. Based on those last two day’s results, some OU bettors will be a little gun-shy about betting the OVER tonight…. But not us.
The anchor to this play, and to ALL of our Baseball OU Plays… is the Man in Blue. Working behind the dish in tonight’s Game Five will be CHRIS GUCCIONE. He is one of only THREE Major League Baseball Umpires that has gone OVER the Total in 75% or more of his games this season. Those three are: David Rackley 14-4 O/U (78%)… Adrian Johnson 17-5 O/U (77%)… and Chris Guccione (75%). Of those three Men in Blue, we certainly like the fact that Guccione’s games have averaged a whopping 11.4 combined RPG this season… while Rackley is at 10.5 and Johnson is at 10.6. Not only that. If you break up the season in 7-8 game segments, then this is the PERFECT time to jump in and play a Guccione OVER. That’s because since the beginning of June, Guccione’s last nine games have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U. Every single game has had 10 or more runs scored in it, with the average being a HIGH 13.0. Gucci has also gone 8-2 O/U (80% Overs) in his National League games this season. He’s worked two Philadelphia games this year, and those games had 13 and 14 runs scored in them. He’s worked one New York game this year, and that one also had 13 runs scored in it.
We will certainly acknowledge that Philadelphia pitcher Nick Pivetta is in decent current form. But his overall record on he season is just 7-9 (4.37). And in four starts versus the Mets last year, his ERA was almost over 5.00 (4.98 to be exact). With two games this week in which they scored 24 and 16 runs, some of the Met’s offensive numbers are a little top-heavy. But we still like the fact that they are averaging over 7 runs pregame on offense in their last ten games versus righties like Pivetta. We also like the fact that Pivetta’s ERA in his night starts this season has been 4.78… compared to a much better 3.31 ERA when pitching in the daytime. On the flip side, New York left-handed starter Jason Vargas is on SHAKY ground. In 13 teams starts this year, his record is 2-11 and his ERA is a HIGH 8.10. He has made four starts since his six-week stint on the DL… and has not looked good. His ERA in those last four starts has been 6.89. In his 53.1 innings pitched, Vargas has given up a high percentage of HOME RUNS (13)… which is not a good sign for this Hitters Ballpark. And to top it off, the Phillies have been feasting on lefties as of late. They have gone 6-1 O/U in their last seven games at HOME versus Southpaws, averaging slightly more than 6 runs per game on offense.