NFL pre-season plays are rated SMALL…. just 1* and 2** each
Thursday, August 16th
7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
A Super Bowl REMATCH (with plenty of Revenge) this early in the following Preseason… Who would have guessed it? I’ve had this game ‘circled’ for about a month now. I started doing the OU research for 2018 Playbook Football Newsletter #1 (the NFL PRESEASON issue) back in early July. I also wrote the 2-page OU article about NFL pre-season OVER / UNDERS on Pages 14 and 15. And at that time, THIS game stood out to me as one of the BEST ‘Over’ opportunities of the entire pre-season. Before we get to the data that supports a higher-than-anticipated scoring outcome, let’s do a quick review of what has happened thus far in the month of August. I tweeted out this info earlier this week (follow me on Twitter @KingCreole1). The first official week of the 2018 preseason was indeed 'OVER-whelming’. In last weekend’s first batch of games, the average OU line was 36.1… The average combined points was 41.9… The average game went OVER by a high margin of +5.8 points per game… and the final tally was 11 OVERS and only 5 UNDERS (69%).
First off, we already know that these two teams (EAGLES and PATRIOTS) play each other a LOT in the preseason. The last five meetings in this New England / Philadelphia series have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. The average combined points in those games? 54.0…
New England has had some extremely STRONG ‘Over’ tendencies as of late. In fact dating back to the 2016 season, they have gone OVER (7-0 O/U) in each of their last SEVEN preseason games. And the margins have been freakin’ SICK to boot (avg OU line: 39.7 / avg combined points: 55.0 / avg MARGIN: +15.3 points per game!).
As I wrote about in the Playbook newsletter, the PATRIOTS have been one of the best HOME ‘Over’ teams in the league. In the last 11 preseasons, they have gone 16-7 O/U at home (46.1 total ppg). On the flip side, this is an ideal opportunity to throw a few dollars down on a Philadelphia ‘OVER’. As I also wrote about in the newsletter, the EAGLES have gone OVER at a high percentage when playing on the preseason road. When taking points as VISITORS in the preseason, the EAGLES have gone 9-3-1 O/U in the last 12 years.
Sealing the deal for us is that this is the real week for the host Patriots (who also have as ‘Super-GRUDGE’, if you will). The PATRIOTS have gone a PERFCT 8-0 O/U in the last eight seasons in Preseason WEEK TWO, with an average of 49.4 combined points per game. Of course, we are not gonna bet the normal amount that we might bet in the NFL regular season. This 2** Play on the OVER is worthy of a SMALL enough play to make the game a little more interesting. Best of luck to you.