No, you can't have a total open as low as 7 1/2 when Corey Oswalt is one of the starting pitchers. Oswalt has a 7.94 ERA and isn't nearly qualified to be a big league starter at this point of his career, if ever.
Note this is the second game of the Phillies-Mets doubleheader. So it's a night game. The wind is projected to be blowing out at 13-14 mph in the evening. There could be fatigue factors, too, for the bullpens since this is the second game of the day.
Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola is outstanding, but the Phillies' bullpen is up and down. The Mets failed to score during the weekend, but in their previous four games their offense showed life scoring a combined 22 runs.
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Monday Free Play
Indians minus $1.73 hosting Reds
When you're on a pitching staff that has Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer it's easy to get overlooked. That's the situation righthander Mike Clevinger is in. I find Clevinger to be underrated. He's 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA. Clevinger is at his best against weak road teams.
So I'm not adverse to stepping out more than normal and laying this price with Cleveland in a pitching matchup of Clevinger versus Anthony DeSclafani.
The Indians are in the superpower class of the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros when playing at home. Cleveland is 28-15 at Progressive Field this season. The Indians have been dominant when taking on below .500 road clubs at home winning 40 of the past 51 times for 78 percent. Cleveland is 7-1 the last eight times Clevinger has thrown against a sub .500 opponent at home.
Cincinnati is 18-25 on the road. The Reds were playing their best ball winning 14 of 18 until this weekend. They blew a five-run lead to the Cubs on Saturday and lost in extra innings to the Cubs again on Sunday. They enter this series with bullpen fatigue and off two extremely tough losses.
The Reds draw Clevinger coming off extra rest. He last played on July 1 in Oakland beating the A's allowing three runs in six innings. That pushed Clevinger's record to 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA when pitching on six or more days of rest. The Reds are 14-29 in their last 43 games against a righthanded starter.
DeSclafani has struggled since coming off the 60-day DL following an oblique strain. He has a 5.08 ERA. His ERA jumps to 7.02 in night games. The Indians rank fifth in homers and runs. So the second part of the equation fits, too, as I see DeSlafani struggling against this lineup. He has a 5.18 ERA in seven interleague starts.
Cincinnati is 15-43, too, during its past 58 interleague road contests.