4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
Interleague Play
#977-978
COLORADO ROCKIES w/ Freeland @ TEXAS RANGERS w/ Minor
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Last night’s Game One of this interleague series between the RANGERS and ROCKIES had 19 hits… 8 walks… and 14 runs. The OVER cashed extremely early in the game (like in the top half the freakin (2ND INNING!). With that tremendous OVER-whelming start to the series, we’ll grab a BIG piece (as in Best Bet) of some OVER action in this afternoon's Game Two… and the ball should be flying OUT with great regularity in hot, steamy Arlington (game time temps: close to 100 degrees). Give us a hot afternoon game in Arlington, and we’ll go OVER the Totals most of the time. Texas is now on a 11-4-3 O/U run in their last 18 home games.
We just went OVER with the same Rockies back on Thursday (on the road vs the Phillies), and they brought home the bacon for us. So we will dive right back in again. After all, sharp Totals bettors HAVE to be aware of what Colorado has done as of late. The ROCKIES are now on a tremendous run of 13-1-1 O/U in their last 15 overall games. Offense is averaging 6.2 runs per game during that stretch, and their pitching staff is allowing an OVER-whelming 7.3 runs per game in that same time period. On the mound, southpaw Kyle Freeland will be toeing the rubber. We’ve been on him twice this season for UNDER winner, but we’ll flip the switch today and go the other way. The reason for that is that after a great start to the sears, he’s shown some signs of ineffectiveness as of late. His ERA for the season is a solid 3.68. But in his last three starts, its up to 5.00. He’s been a great night pitcher (2.93 ERA), but has struggled in his DAY starts (5.48). And he’s also given up multiple ‘DONGS’ in those last three starts as well. The fact that his is LEFTY plays well into our play. The Texas Rangers are averaging more than a half run MORE this season vs Southpaws compared to Righties. And in fact, the RANGERS are 15-4-2 O/U in their last 21 HOME games vs Southpaws.
The hot Rockie offense should have no problems teeing off against left-hander Mike Minor of the host Rangers. Minor comes win with an ERA of 5.65 on the season, and 5.82 in his last three starts. Like his counterpart on the Rockies, Minor has been significantly worse this season in his DAYTIME starts (6.14 ERA / 68% Over the Total) compared to his night starts. And also like his counterpart, Minor has exhibited a late tendency toward giving up a decent amount of Gopher Balls. In his last six starts covering 30 innings, he has given up NINE home runs. And finally, the fact that Minor is a LEFTY (also like his counterpart) is ALSO a good sign for us OVER bettors. That’s because the Rockies are hitting 30 points HIGHER this year vs lefties compared to righties, and averaging almost a full run-per-game MORE in offense. In fact, in their last TEN game vs lefties, the Rockies are averaging 7.6 runs per game.
Sealing the deal for us will be Saturday’s ‘Man in Blue’. Working behind the dish for today’s Game Two will be TODD TICHENOR. he is one of only ELEVEN full-time Major League Baseball Umpires that has gone OVER the Total in 67% or more of his games this season. Since the middle of the month of May, Tichenor has gone 5-1 O/U in his last six games. He has an extremely small strike zone. That is evidenced by the fact that his is allowing 8.2 walks per game on the season. he’s is one of only three Umps that is allowing 8 or more of these ‘free passes’ per game. And it is no coincidence that those three Umpires (Tichenor, Carlson, and Hoberg) have a combined record of 25-9-1 O/U on the year (74% Overs)! Tichenor has also gone OVER at a 72% percentage in all American League parks this season…. and 74% OVER the Total on all grass surfaces. In his only other ‘Lefty vs Lefty' pitching matchup this year, 12 total runs were scored.