I think we MIGHT get a better number later - I don't think it matters. Nevada can win this game. Nevada came back and beat Texas after being way down, so that's a huge confidence booster if they start slow. Texas with Bamba plays as well defensively as Cincinnati. Although the stats may favor Cincinnati defensively, Texas played a MUCH stronger schedule. In fact, Cincinnati out of the American Athletic Conference, didn't play a strong schedule and lost to the two elite teams (Xavier and Florida) they played. We know Cincinnati plays pressure defense, but Nevada was the #1 team in the nation as far as protecting the ball goes. Nevada let Texas shoot 45% from behind the arc and still won the game. Nevada SHOT 61% inside AGAINST Texas - a much bigger team. Nevada is short-handed, but Texas plays slow and so does Cincinnati, so in this particular matchup it shouldn't hurt them. If they were playing an up tempo team, maybe. Nevada is a much better FT shooting team. Nevada lost one game all year by more than eight points - in the Conference Tournament to SDSU. Cincinnati just doesn't have the offense to run and hide here, so if Nevada doesn't win outright this should be a tight game. People think UC might wake up, but until they do I won't bet on it. Not here.
My other strongest lean at the moment, that I will probably play at some point, Marshall.