Top Lean: (865) Kansas State PK over Creighton. 6:50pm ET. Creighton has not performed well in the NCAA tournament with a 3-8 SU/1-9-1 ATS mark since 2002. The Blue Jays are also just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games which happened after Martin Krampelj (12 ppg, 8 rpg) went out with a torn ACL. Kansas State should get both Dean Wade and Barry Brown back from injury here after both were banged up in the Big 12 tournament. Marcus Foster (20 ppg) did play for Kansas State in his first two years but got kicked off the team. He will play with a chip on his shoulder here but it won't be enough.
Forced Lean: (863) UMBC +20.5 over Virginia. 9:20pm ET. Yes, Virginia has one of the best defenses in college basketball the last 17 years but it's tough laying 20.5 points here when Virginia also runs the slowest tempo in all of college basketball. Plus, Virginia just lost some scoring production in ACC 6th Man of the Year (DeAndre Hunter 9 ppg) being ruled out for the season with a broken wrist. Also lean with UNDER 120.5.
Forced Lean: (869) Lipscomb +20.5 over North Carolina. 2:45pm ET. Lipscomb likes to run tempo (No. 5 in the country) which could be a disadvantage here going up against a North Carolina team that also likes to run. However, we're not sure how motivated North Carolina will be to extend a lot of effort here considering the Tar Heels just played 4 games in 4 days last week in the ACC tournament and have bigger fish to fry later on in the tournament.
Forced Lean: (872) Arkansas +1.5 over Butler. 3:10pm ET. Two teams heading in opposite directions down the stretch with Arkansas 8-3 SU/7-3-1 ATS while Butler was 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS. SEC looked mighty good yesterday in their 4-0 start and while Butler has more NCAA tournament experience, that came under a different coaching staff.
Forced Lean: (875) Syracuse +5 over TCU. 9:40pm ET. Syracuse had no problem slowing down a fast-paced Arizona State team in the play-in game as we cashed with the Orange outright. Syracuse is now on a 19-7 SU run in the NCAA tournament. While TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has experience defending the Syracuse zone back to his days at Pittsburgh, Dixon also has a poor track record in the NCAA tournament. We lean with the Orange who have a massive defensive edge (No. 10 vs no. 105).
Forced Lean: (878) Michigan State -13.5 over Bucknell. 7:10pm ET. Bucknell did return 5 starters from a team that won 26 games and only lost by 6 to West Virginia in the NCAA tournament last year. Michigan State has not played since March 3rd but the Spartans probably needed the rest considering they were 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games (although 11-1 SU). Playing in near by Detroit means Sparty will have the huge crowd edge here. Michigan State has a Top 10 offense and defense, led the nation in blocks and 2-point FG % defense. I lean with the MSU here.
Forced Lean: (881/882) Georgia State/Cincinnati UNDER 131.5. 2:00pm ET. Cincinnati has the No. 2 defense in the country and last week's AAC Tournament showed their offense (No. 52) is the worst among the Top 25 power-rated teams in the country. The UNDER is 6-1 in neutral court games for Cincinnati and if Georgia St is going to stay in this one, they have to keep a slower tempo.
Forced Lean: (884) Xavier -19 over Texas Southern. 7:20pm ET. While Texas Southern did play the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, they did lose by double-digits to Ohio state, Kansas, Baylor, TCU and BYU. Meanwhile, Xavier was 10-3 ATS in non-conference action and the "X-Men" are also 7-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament the last 3 years.
Forced Lean: (886) Missouri +1.5 over Florida State. 9:50pm ET. Tough backing a Florida State team that finished the season a 3-5 SU/0-7-1 ATS slide. Missouri has the better defense (No. 46 vs No. 78) and played the tougher schedule (No. 27 vs No. 56). Michael Porter didn't look good in his return to the line-up going just 5 of 17 in the SEC tournament loss to Georgia but should be better here. He'll have to be considering Jordan Barnett (2nd leading scorer and rebounder) is suspended here. I would have had a star-rated play on Mizzou if not for the Barnett news. Also note SEC went 4-0 ATS yesterday while the ACC was 1-3 ATS. Finally, FSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA tournament games.
Forced Lean: (887) Murray State +10 over West Virginia. 4:00pm ET. Both teams deserved a better seeding in my opinion. West Virginia hasn't performed well in the first round the last couple of years barely surviving Bucknell last year and being KO'd by Stephen F. Austin two years. Murray State's offense (No. 51) is perfectly capable of hanging around here and keep in mind the Racers only lost by 4 to Auburn earlier this year.
Forced Lean: (889) Marshall +12.5 over Wichita State. 1:30pm ET. Obviously, Marshall was playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch (10-2 SU/9-3 ATS) in winning the CUSA tournament. The Thundering Herd like to run (No. 6 in tempo) and are facing an overrated Wichita State defense (No. 109) that has vastly disappointed this season after the Shockers average defensive rank the last 5 years was No. 12. Wichita is on a 0-6 ATS run entering the tournament and keep in mind, the Shockers have logged heavy travel miles this year in the AAC and now have to go all the way out to San Diego.
Forced Lean: (891) New Mexico State +4.5 over Clemson. 9:55pm ET. New Mexico State has the No. 5 defense in the country in FG % allowed and New Mexico State has plenty of NCAA tournament experience making their 6th trip in the last 7 years. The Aggies also boasted outright wins over Davidson and Miami in non-conference action. Clemson has been good fade material down the stretch (just 3-5 SU). A lot of it had to do with the loss of Donte Grantham (14 ppg, 7 rpg) and the Tigers went from making 56.6% of their two-point shots with him in the line-up to just 45.4% without. I originally was thinking 1-star on New Mexico State here but this line is just too short and New Mexico State is the most popular public pick today with 75% of the tickets. Also lean UNDER 134.