1-star (735) Loyola-Chicago +2 over Miami, FL. 3:10pm ET. Loyola-Chicago is on a 17-1 SU run since they got back their guard Clayton Custer. The Ramblers have the better defense (No. 24 vs No. 45) and the Missouri Valley conference is 8-0 SU in the first round of the NCAA tournament the last 5 years. Miami was fortunate to be 4-4 down the stretch as the Hurricanes 4 wins were by a combined 8 points. However, Miami is a money-burning 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games and guard Bruce Brown remains out for them here. I also lean with UNDER 132.5.
Top Lean: (747) South Dakota State +8.5 over Ohio State. 4:00pm ET. The Jackrabbits are making their 3rd straight tournament appearance and are led by Mike Daum who averages 24 ppg, 10 rpg and shoots better than 40% from the 3-point range (last player to do that in College was Kevin Durant). The Buckeyes could be rusty after not playing since March 2nd and were 1-3-1 ATS down the stretch. No. 12 seeds are 23-11-2 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournaments the last 9 years. I would have had this game as a star-rated play but South Dakota State is one of the most popular public picks today (getting 70% of the tickets).
Top Lean: (723) Oklahoma +2 (Down to +1.5) over Rhode Island. 12:15pm ET. Oklahoma is 0-10 SU/ATS away from in 2018. So how in the hell can I back them here? Well, I think a lot of the reason Oklahoma played so poorly down the stretch was that Trae Young was gassed and didn't have the same spark he had in November and December. Now the Sooners have had more than a week off and the entire betting markets have thrown them in the trash creating some value. Meanwhile, I question Rhode Island's
energy here as the Rams just played 3 games in 3 days and finished up on Sunday losing the Atlantic 10 title game by a point. Also lean UNDER 158.5.
Forced Lean: (719/720) Radford/Villanova UNDER 140. 6:50pm ET. My power ratings have this game at Villanova by 23.94 so hardly any value there. Radford does play a very slow tempo and I doubt that Villanova will want to run too much here. We've seen the UNDER cash in all 4 NCAA play-in games so far and the UNDER is 10-6 in NIT games as well (several NIT rule changes have also helped) showing that this time of year usually means increased defensive intensity and more careful offensive possessions. Personally, I'm not betting this game but if you had to, I'd take the UNDER.
Forced Lean: (721/722) Alabama/Virginia Tech UNDER 141.5. 9:20pm ET. I originally was leaning towards Alabama in this one as the Crimson Tide have the better defense and have played the tougher schedule. However, I'm worried how much gas is left in the tank here after playing 3 games in 3 days in the SEC Tournament while also dealing with an injury to forward Donta Hall (? here). Keep in mind, the Crimson Tide entered the conference tourney with 5 straight losses and needed a buzzer-beater to take down Texas A&M. They lose that game and they're in the NIT. Now the Tide are seeded at No. 9? Lean on Virginia Tech -2 but prefer the UNDER here as both defenses out-rank the opponent's offenses and Va Tech has seen the UNDER go 9-0 in their last 9 games since they slowed down their tempo.
Forced Lean: (726) Duke -20.5 over Iona. 2:45pm ET. Iona is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and I think the Blue Devils have the most upside of any team in the tournament. Since Duke switched to a zone defense, the UNDER is 7-1 in their games. However, Iona is the type of team that likes to push the tempo which plays into the hands of the Dukies. I'd really prefer to pass this game completely but if you had to get involved, I'd lean with the Blue Devils.
Forced Lean: (728) Kansas -13.5 over Penn. 2:00pm ET. Penn is vastly under seeded at No. 16 as the Quakers should have been a No. 14 seed. Vegas is telling you how good they are with only a 14-point line here (2nd lowest ever for a No. 1 vs No. 16 match-up). However, I think the number is a little too cheap. Kansas has put up a 100-plus in each of the last two years in the first round and have covered 3 straight 1st rounders. I was expecting Udoka Azubuike (14 ppg, 7 rpg) to play here for the Jayhawks after missing the Big 12 tournament but it looks like Bill Self might hold him out here (available in an emergency).
Forced Lean: (730) Seton Hall -2.5 over NC State. 4:30pm ET. I was originally wanting to back NC State here but the Wolf Pack have been way too inconsistent as of late. Seton Hall has the better defense and has played the tougher schedule while also having more NCAA tourney experience. The Pirates should be healthier with Desi Rodriguez (18 ppg) back in the starting line-up.
Forced Lean: (731/732) San Diego State/Houston UNDER 140.5 7:20pm ET. San Diego State is on a 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS run and are playing as well as any smaller conference team in the country right now. Keep in mind, the Aztecs also boast a win over Gonzaga in non-conference action. Houston is also playing well. Both teams feature Top 40 defenses and I expect a close game down to the wire. This totals line has dropped 2 points in the last 2 hours. Also lean on San Diego State +4.
Forced Lean: (734) Michigan -10 over Montana. 9:50pm ET. Rest or rust here for the Wolverines who haven't played since March 4th. Michigan is 21-4 SU/18-7 ATS in their last 25 games and this is by far the best defense John Beilein has had in his tenure here. Beilein also owns a 20-9 ATS mark in the NCAA tournament. Montana is 19-2 SU in their last 21 games but had to rally in each of their 3 conference tournament games. The markets are betting Montana heavy today.
Forced Lean: (737/738) Wright State/Tennessee UNDER 132 (Down to 130.5) 12:40pm ET. If there is anything Wright State does well it comes on the defensive end of the floor with a Top 60 rated defense. However, Wright State's offenses ranks just No. 248. Tennessee boasts a Top 5 defense. The money is coming in on Wright State in this game (opened +14, now +11.5) but keep in mind the Horizon is on a 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS run in the NCAA.
Forced Lean: (740) Florida -5.5 over St. Bonaventure. 9:57pm ET. The Gators have been very inconsistent but have a lot of upside. St. Bonaventure surprised many with their upset over UCLA on Tuesday but are at a travel disadvantage here. I have this game power-rated at Florida by 6 so hence my lean on the Gators who have the superior defense.
Forced Lean: (742) Texas Tech -11 over Stephen F. Austin. 7:25pm ET. If Keenan Evans doesn't get hurt for a 4-game stretch in February (TT went 0-4 SU/ATS), the Red Raiders most likely would have ended Kansas' long Big 12 title reign. Now with Evans healthy again, this is a dangerous Red Raiders team that I think can make a run to the Elite 8.
Forced Lean: (745) Buffalo +8.5 over Arizona. 9:40pm ET. Arizona is one of the hottest teams in the country right now (24-4 SU after starting the season 3-3). The Wildcats have the best player in the country in 7-foot-1 DeAndre Ayton (see Pac-12 tournament performances). However, this isn't a great match-up for them considering Arizona's average defense. Buffalo's offense that likes to run is fully capable of getting the back-door cover late.
Forced Lean: (749) NC-Greensboro +12.5 over Gonzaga. 1:30pm ET. Gonzaga is on a 0-6 ATS run as a double-digit chalk in the NCAA tournament and UNC-Greensboro boasts a Top 30 defense. I also like smaller conference teams that win both their regular season and conference tournament championships. Also lean with UNDER 136.