Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Over 213.5 (Play up to 215)

I took Atlanta on their last game at Milwaukee, as even though the Hawks are a poor overall defensive team, they have a decent interior defense and a top 10 transition defense in the league, so they were a bad matchup for Milwaukee's offense, who needs to score in the paint and create fast break points to be effective. Today, Denver will be a much more favorable matchup for Milwaukee's offense. Denver has been playing with Jokic as Center and Chandler as PF, so their rim protection has been far from good, as they have allowed 53 points in the paint per game over the last seven contests. Also when they faced teams who like to run and score in transition, they allowed 23 fast break points to Oklahoma City, 17 to Golden State, 13 to Houston and 20 to Phoenix.

Milwaukee's defense has been playing very well with their new coach, but they also had a favorable schedule with plenty of poor offensive teams in the Knicks, Brooklyn, the Knicks again, Miami, Orlando and Atlanta. The Bucks with Henson out has been using Maker as the starting Center, so I expect Jokic to have a big edge down low, as he will outplay Maker and explore the over help defense from Milwaukee as well. Denver's offense with this new lineup has been playing at the same level as last year and so, with both teams having clear edges on offense tonight, I'll be taking the Over in here.