Toronto has been a play-on team especially at home. Toronto has the best record in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 home record in the NBA. The Raptors have won five in a row with their average winning margin being 21 points during this span. 

So why buck the Raptors? 

Spot, line value and Miami's track record in these instances. 

While the Raptors were destroying the Hornets at Charlotte on Sunday in their last game, the Heat were resting. Miami last played on Friday. You know that with the Heat you're going to get good coaching and game preparation from Erik Spoelstra, a top-seven defense, strong team effort and solid bench play enhanced with the addition of Dwayne Wade. 

The Raptors have lost only four home games, but one of them was to the Heat. Miami has a winning road mark, own a 15-7-1 ATS record the past 23 times playing Eastern Conference foes and have covered in five of its last six away games. 

The Heat also are 22-7 ATS during their past 29 road games versus foes with a winning home record. I want all this going for me. I like the spot, too, I perceive the Raptors being a little fat and happy while the fully rested Heat should be in line for a strong performance.