While all 7 of New England’s Super Bowls under Belichick have been decided by 6 points or less, the Pats are 15-0 SU in the playoffs when meeting a foe for the first time in a season. While all the early big money has come in on Philadelphia here, we think there is some recency bias going on here. Prior to the AFC/NFC Championship games, the look-ahead line for a PHI/NE Super Bowl had NE -7. Philadelphia far exceeded expectations in their blowout win over Minnesota while New England struggled with Jacksonville. Therefore, it made sense that the line was New England -5.5 in the early days of betting. Keep in mind, Philadelphia was a 3-point home underdog to both Atlanta and Minnesota meaning they would have been 6-point underdogs on a neutral to those two teams. Obviously, we feel the Patriots are better than the Falcons and Vikings.

Typically when you have a 4.5-point favorite in the NFL, the money line should be around -210, but because there has been so much action on Philadelphia so far in Vegas, you can get a very cheap -180 on the Patriots on the money line at multiple books. Most pro bettors only need 10 cents or so of value to make a bet on the money line. Here we have 30 cents of value!