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Pro Pick From
Fezzik

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(At current odds)

2018-01-21T20:05:00.000Z 2018-01-21T20:05:00.000Z - NFL

311 Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
312 New England Patriots

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/21/2018

NFL Totals

UN JAC/NE

24-20

47-115

2

W

200

Analysis
NOTE Re:  Coin Toss, I expect all 4 teams to DEFER if they win the toss.  Teams DO at times change what they have been doing in the playoffs, so this is NOT 100% sure .....I am more confident Jax will defer almost 100% however.  Fyi.....

*************


PROPS I BET:  (Strong Leans)

Fournette UNDER 78 rush yards.  

The Pats take away your No1 option, and he has not been the same since Week 6, got lots of carries in the playoffs, but now is not 100%

Jags Defense more Sacks (-125)

This one is hard to find, but I expect Jax to get close to 3 sacks, the Pats closer to 2.  Note Jax to get the 1st sack is good as well, if not better if you can find it.

Jax more First Downs +5-120.  

We KNOW NE does better on the scoreboard than the raw stats. +5 is too high for a 7.5 point dog, and WAY too high, for a NE -7.5 game, where they could win by 10 and see the stats being close to even.

LEAN:  Pats -7.5+100 

LEAN:  2 team Teaser Pats -.5, Eagles +10, 7 point teaser.



"They" have been betting the OVER, but that is NOT going to continue IMO.  I just got some updated information that the Brady practice mishap has resulted in him likely with a hand/thumb injury that is not insignificant......

The betting markets are reflecting this "news" I heard to be true, why has this line cratered down from 9 to 7.25?   I am viewing this as a real issue.

However, the total has NOT moved, largely because we just saw two OVERS on Sunday, and the public is betting OVERs.   However, if Brady is not 100% this UNDER is a great bet, as I would lean under even if Brady WAS 100%!

************

Lookahead Line:  2 STARS.   Bet VIKINGS +3-110 vs. Pats Lookahead lines.  2 stars.  This line is at William Hill, South Point, and shop around at other places.......
Pick Creation Time:
01/19/2018 9:08 AM
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