10:05pm ET / 7:05pm PT
#517-518
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trailblazers
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Tonight’s 2** OVER of the DAY in the NBA has multiple similarities as our Friday Night winner did. A late-night game… in Non-Division play… with the home team slightly favored… and a manageable OU line. But the biggest similarity is the two teams involved. In yesterday’s writeup, we mentioned that if the Knicks and Jazz had played each other earlier in the season, we would have strongly considered going the other way (as in UNDER). But a sharp OU bettor knows when to re-evaluate the numbers in mid-stream and make the necessary adjustments. In last night’s case, it was the fact that both Utah and New York has increased their Pace of Play significantly as of late, and the result was a game that went OVER by 32 points.
Our Saturday play has us going in the same direction. If Dallas and Portland were playing each other in the first two months of the season, we would have thought ‘Under FIRST’. At one point in the 2017/2018 season, these two teams were ranked as the #2 and #3 BEST ‘Under’ teams in the league. But things have changed for BOTH since late December. Check out Dallas’ offensive numbers by the month: 98.3 ppg in October… 100.1 ppg in November… 103.2 ppg in December… and 110.6 PPG IN JANUARY. How about the host Trailblazers? 100.3 ppg in November… 100.0 ppg in December… and 111.8 PPG IN JANUARY. As a result, both of these teams are now ranked in the TOP SIX in the entire league in Pace of Play during the current month. After appearing the bottom three for much of the season, PORTLAND has moved all the way up to #4 in Pace of Play for January. Same goes for DALLAS, who is now ranked #6 in Pace of Play this month. TRAILBLAZERS last ten games: 222.7 combined points per game. MAVERICKS last ten games: 221.7 combined points per game.
We are certainly aware that Dallas comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back losses that BOTH went Under the Total. That’s ok by me. Because: NBA road underdogs off BB losses that both went UNDER the Total (MAVERICKS) have gone 18-4 O/U in the last two months when the OU line is < 222 points.
Dallas’ last game was way back on Tuesday when they went into the Mile High City and lost to the Denver Nuggets…. So far THIS season, NBA teams off a ROAD game versus the Denver Nuggets (MAVERICKS) have gone 13-2 O/U when the OU line is 219 < points.
So that means that the Mavericks come in with a full three days of rest… In the last three seasons, NBA Western Conference non-division road underdogs of +9 < points have gone 8-1-1 O/U when playing with exactly 3 days of rest (MAVERICKS).
On the flip side, we are also aware that Portland just went UNDER in their last game… a non-conference home win against the Indiana Pacer… 10-1 O/U since November: All non-division favorites off a SU and ATS non-conference home FAV win that also went Under the Total (TRAILBLAZERS) when the OU line is 222 or less points.
After a three-game road losing streak, Portland has come back with two wins in each of their first two games of this 3-game homestand. After tonight’s game, they will (ironically) travel to DENVER for their next game. But in regards to the current homestand: In the last 2 years, NBA non-division favorites of > 3 points… in the LAST of a 3-game homestead… have gone 13-2 O/U if they won the first two games of that homestand (TRAILBLAZERS) … when the OU line is 219 or less points.