10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT

#811-812

NEW YORK KNICKS @ UTAH JAZZ

2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

If this game was played in the first few months of the season, we would have strongly considered going the other way (UNDER). But over the course of a l-o-n-g six-month season, things can change dramatically… especially from an Over / Under perspective. Just ask the Chicago Bulls, who went from the BEST ‘Under’ team to one of the top ‘OVER’ teams in just a six-week period. Or the Washington Wizards (UNDER to OVER)… Or the Portland Trailblazers (UNDER to OVER)… Or the Memphis Grizzlies (UNDER to OVER)… Or the Dallas Mavericks (UNDER to OVER)… Or the Cleveland Cavaliers (OVER to UNDER)… Or the Miami Heat (UNDER to OVER)… Or the Milwaukee Bucks (OVER to UNDER)… Our point in throwing out al of these examples is that the savvy OU bettor has to know when recognize a pattern and STRIKE when things start going the other way. Another example is the traveling Knicks on Friday. A solid UNDER team in the first two months of the season. But one that has starting scoring at a much higher level now that they are as healthy as they have been all season. So it’s no surprise that New York comes into tonight’s non-conference affair on a current 7-1 O/U run in their last eight games… and a perfect 5-0 O/U in their last five (with an HIGH average margin of +17.2 ppg!). And if there is one situation in which we would consider a Utah OVER, it’s versus THIS Division (JAZZ: 10-2 O/U L12 vs Atlantic Division opponents).

Taking a look at each team’s recent Pace of Play points us in the right direction. Both the Knicks and the Jazz have been middle-of-the-road teams for the entire season (NY #15 / Utah #18) in points scored per 100 possessions. But in their last five games, with teams are scoring at a TOP TEN offensive Pace of Play (UTAH: #8 at 107.8 pts per 100 possessions / NEW YORK: #7 at 108.6 points per 100 possessions). So based on their recent play, the OU lime in this game should be more like 210 to 212 points, rather than the current line of 202.5 to 203. It also doesn’t hurt us at all that this Knicks / Jazz SERIES has gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last four meetings either, with an average of 217.0 combined points per game. 

New York was a slight road favorite in Non-Conference action on Wednesday. They lost OUTRIGHT and that game went OVER the Total… Already THIS season, NBA road teams off a SU non-conference road FAV loss that went ‘Over the Total’ (KNICKS) have gone a PERFECT 7-0 O/U when the OU line is < 213 points.

New York’s opponent in that Wednesday night loss was the Memphis Grizzlies… 22-5 O/U last 3 years: All NBA teams off a road game vs the Memphis Grizzlies that went OVER the TOTAL (Knicks) when the OU line is 210 or less points. These games have gone 14-2 O/U when the pointspread is 7 or less points.

So with the Knicks off back-to-back road OVERS in a row, our database tells us that: NBA road underdogs of + 3 > pts off a Road LOSS that went OVER, and a Road WIN that went OVER have gone 9-1-1 O/U in the last three years when the OU line is 208 or less points.

We are aware that New York was held to only 99 points in that Wednesday loss, after scoring 119 points on MLK Day versus the Brooklyn Nets… 11-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA underdogs after scoring < 100 pts and 118 > pts in their last two games (KNICKS), when the OU line is < 217 points… versus any < .500 opponent (JAZZ).

Utah’s scoring numbers in THEIR last two games are basically the exact opposite of the Knicks. The Jazz are off a 120-pt game against Sacramento on Wednesday night, after scoring only 94 points against Indiana on MLK Day… 17-5-1 O/U last 2 years: All NBA home favorites who scored 120 > pts and 99 < pts in each of their last two games (JAZZ), when the OU line is 221 or less points. These teams have gone 10-1 O/U when favored by -8 or less points.

In Wednesday’s game against the Kings, Utah was also a road ‘chalk’ team (like New York was), and they covered the spread pretty easily…winning by the final score of 120 to 105… In the last 30 days, NBA favorites of > 2 points off a SUATS road favorite win that also went OVER the Total (JAZZ) have gone 10-1 O/U when the OU line is 217 or less points.