#705-706

7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT

San Antonio Spurs @ Brooklyn Nets

2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

The league’s 2nd BEST road UNDER team (Spurs: 7-16-1 O/U away TY) takes on the Brooklyn Nets tonight, with the OU line in the generous range of 208 to 209 points. When it comes to LOW-scoring series’, this one definitely has it. The SPURS and NETS already went UNDER in their earlier meeting this season. And in fact, the last nine games in this series have gone 1-8 O/U since the start of the 2013/2104 season. Average OU line: 202.6… Average combined points: 195.5.

As we mentioned in our promo, this non-conference game qualifiers in the exact SAME situation as yesterday’s STRONG Free Play… which was on ‘UNDER the Total’ in the Minnesota Timberwolves / Orlando Magic game. We used that one as a ‘test’. Since it hit, we’ll come right back and play for a LOW-scoring result for tonight’s game. When it comes to road ‘chalk’ in non-conference games, the results have been great for UNDER bettors as of late… 3-17 O/U since December 1st / 0-12 O/U last 30 days (after last night’s win): All NON-CONFERENCE home underdogs of > 4 points (Brooklyn is +7 tonight) when the OU line is LESS than (<) 220 points.

San Antonio’s last game was a Monday road affair against the Atlanta Hawks. The Spurs left Atlanta with a shocking of 102 to 99 (game also went UNDER) as a heavy road favorite of -5.5 points. It was also the third STRAIGHT game for San Antonio that went UNDER the Total (and by an average margin of -17 points per game!)… Already 1-9 O/U THIS season: All NBA non-division teams off a SU road loss in which they were a FAVORITE of -5 > points (Spurs), when the OU line is 209 or less points.

On the flip side, Brooklyn is ALSO off a similar result in THEIR last game. The Nets were home favs against division rival New York on MLK Day, and also lost OUTRIGHT…. Since October, All NBA teams have gone a PERFECT 0-13 O/U off a SU division home FAVORITE loss (Nets)… when the OU line is in the wide range of > 192 and < 222 points.

San Antonio comes in with a 29-16 SU record on the year (.644 winning percentage) while the Brooklyn Nets are 16-28 SU on the season (.363  winning percentage)… Since Christmas, NBA home teams with a < .400 winning percentage (Nets) have gone a PERFECT 0-7 O/U versus any > .600 opponent (Spurs) when the OU line is in the range of 200 to 216 points.

We are very aware that the Nets enter this game on a current 3-game ‘OVER’ streak. But consider the poor DEFENSES that they played in those last three games: Knicks… Wizards… and Hawks. NOW they have to take on the BEST defense in the entire league. San Antonio is allowing only 96.7 points per 100 possessions (2nd last in Pace of Play). And besides, < .350 home teams in the NBA off back-to-back LOSSES that BOTH went UNDER the Total (Nets) have gone 1-9 O/U in the last 12 months when the OU line is 209 or less points.

Brooklyn’s BEST low-scoring individual TEAM O/U tendencies apply in this game,

The NETS have gone 3-10 O/U in ALL home games since December 1st, including a PERFECT 0-7 O/U against NON-division opponents… and 1-8-1 O/U since November versus ALL Western Conference opponents when the OU line is 222 or less points.

San Antonio’s BEST low-scoring TEAM O/U tendencies ALSO apply in this game.

The SPURS have gone 5-21-1 O/U so far THIS season vs any opponent who allowed 100 or more points their last game. In addition, the SPURS have gone 1-12 O/U in the last 12 months as favorites versus any < .500 Eastern Conference opponent when the OU line is > 197 points, including 0-6 O/U already THIS season.