5:35pm ET / 2:35pm PT
#713-714
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Obviously, we’ll be bucking a series history which has seen the OVER go 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams (Lakers + Grizzlies). But the way that each team has slowed down their Pace of Play considerably as of late, the UNDER is the only way to go in today’s game. Especially revealing to share OU bettors is the fact that Los Angeles just played a road game against the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday… that STLL went UNDER the Total DESPITE the fact that the game went into OVERTIME (more on that a little lower in our writeup). The OU line in that game was 213.5 points. After four quarters, the score was 95 to 95. So that game would have went UNDER by -23.5 points if it had stayed in regulation play. As it was, it still went UNDER… What we DO know about today’s game is that it features tow of the most dysfunctional offenses in the league for the season. The LAKERS are ranked 2nd LAST (#29) in offensive efficiency for the year, with only 101.1 points per 100 possessions. And MEMPHIS is ranked #25 in offensive efficiency for the year (102.8 points per 100 possessions). What seals the deal from a statistical standpoint is each team’s CURRENT form. These teams are ranked #27 and #28 in their last three games. Memphis is at only 97.8 points per 100 possessions while Los Angeles is at only 97.3 97.8 points per 100 possessions. And it sure doesn’t hurt us that Memphis is STILL the BEST home ‘UNDER’ team in the league for the entire season. The GRIZZLIES are 5-16 O/U at home this year, and the next best home UNDER team has been the Portland Trailblazers at 7-14 O/U.
My first database query in regards to this game is a look at the current REST situation. Memphis’ last game was Friday against the Nuggets (went UNDER by -38.5 pts!), so they come in with 2 days of rest. And as mentioned above, the Lakers’ last game was Saturday against the Mavericks, so LA comes in on 1 day of rest…
0-11 O/U since February of last season / 0-7 O/U so far THIS season: All Western Conference home favorites of > 1 points (Grizzlies are -2.5) in a ‘2/1’ REST situation.
Query #2 looks at LA’s game against Dallas on Saturday, in which they won outright but the game STILL went UNDER the Total despite it going into OVERTIME. The sample size is small, but significant nevertheless… 1-8 O/U last 5 years / 0-4 O/U last 3 years: All NBA road teams off a SU road dog game that went ‘UNDER’ in OVERTIME (Lakers), when the OU line is > 192 points.
So the Lakers come into today’s contest on a 3-game streak in which they went 3-0 ATS, but 0-3 O/U (3 ATS wins in a row that ALL went ‘Under’)…. 0-9 O/U last 12 months: All non-division CONFERENCE road teams off 3+ ATS wins and 3+ ‘Unders’ in a row (Lakers) when the pointspread in the hame is < 11 points.
As mentioned above, the dysfunctional Grizzlies offense just scored 78 points in their last game… Since December. all NBA teams who scored LES than (<) 80 points in their last game (Grizzlies) have gone 0-5 O/U.
Memphis’ last game was on the road against the Denver Nuggets…. 1-10 O/U last 5 years: all NBA non-Northwest Division teams off a SU road loss against the Denver Nuggets that ALSO went ‘Under the Total’ (Grizzlies), when the OU line is > 190 points. Home FAVORITES in this situation have gone a PERFECT 0-7 O/U.
Sealing the deal for us UNDER bettors is a look at each team’s poor W/L percentage on the season. Memphis is 13-28 SU (.317 winning percentage) while Los Angeles is 15-27 SU (.357 winning percentage)… Since the start of LAST season, NBA home favorites with a .333 or WORSE winning percentage (Grizzlies) have gone 4-21-1 O/U versus any .400 or WORSE opponent (Lakers), when the O/U Line is < 211 points.
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