Jacksonville Jaguars +7

Here’s another game where the most ‘recent’ performance is clouding everyone’s judgment.  Bortles and this Jags offense looked awful last week against the Bills, but that doesn’t mean they’ll perform just as bad this week.  Pittsburgh is not the same defense they were earlier in the year, as injuries to Shazier, Haden, and others have sapped a lot of the juice out of this team.  Jags got Hurns and Lee back in recent weeks, and I’d expect them to play much better in this matchup.  The biggest issue for Pittsburgh is the health of Antonio Brown.  He was supposed to return earlier than projected from his calf injury, practiced a few days this week, but then sat out with a mysterious “illness” on Friday.  There’s some reports out there that the calf is simply not right yet.  I’m sure he’ll suit up, but how effective he’ll be is anyone’s guess.  Against the #1 ranked pass-D Steelers can’t afford to have Brown at less than 100%.  In any case, my model has this game at PIT -1.  I had to double check the numbers, but it seem Jags as a better team in this matchup and clearly there’s a ton of value on the underdog in this one.  I see this one as a toss-up and will grab the generous points.