NFL Playoffs, 1st thoughts ONLY:  (No Bets yet)

I likely will tease 102 KC with 106 Jax

Leaning  Ten/KC UNDER

Leaning Car/NO UNDER

No plays yet, but I know I just had one game on my all access so wanted to get my NFL initial thoughts to you

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Props:  Bama typically takes the ball when they win the toss.  Clemson has won the toss the last 2 Championship Games, both times they deferred. Given this, there it is very likely Bama starts with the ball.  Therefore:

Bama to score 1st -130 1 star.

Strong leans:

Bama to get to 10 points 1st -135

Bama 1st quarter -135

Clemson 3rd Qtr + 1/2 -135

Re:  The total, Strong lean UNDER 47, if it inflates to 48 UNDER will be a play of 1 star UNDER at 48.

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You may want to consider waiting until closer to gametime, as typically the ML gets better on big game like this at post....

After Ala lost @Aub (after barely getting by @Miss St) I declared Clemson the better team, when Clemson crushed Miami.

Fast Forward 5 weeks, and NOW  Ala is CLEARLY the play.

I KNOW they played noone after they beat no3 FSU to open the season, but they coasted past every team they played including LSU.  THEN, they got MASSIVE cluster injuries at LB, and could not stop the run and MSU and Aub ran all over them.

They lost that Aub game by 12, and they were in the game despite imploding on bad snaps in the 4Q, and having no healthy LBs.  NOW, 2 of their injured LBs are back, and 2 other LBs who were hurt all yr are going to play.

Ala has an ENORMOUS edge on Special team, Clemson has a horrendous fg kicker.  Bama literally has a -3 spread justified based SOLELY on Special teams.

Ala has revenge from last year.  Frankly, the reason they lost SU LAST year is CLemson had the revenge IMO.  IT was worth -1.5 to Bama last year, +1.5 this year.

Desean Watson is incredible.  We have seen how he worth over a TD beter than Tom Savage for the Houston Texans.....make that 12 points better than the Clemson QB Bryant.  Watson WAS the reason Clemson could suddenly compete evenly with Bama the last 2 years.

Bama 2017 is likely 3 points worse than their team LAST year, but Clemson is more like 6 points worse than THEIR team.  Revenge, Rest, more healthy, AND any good regression model is going to project what was the clear cut NO 1 team all year to rise UP more with lots of time off, back to their historical level.

Bama by 7-14.  Minus 3 is fine, but any ML -155 or lower is better.