Arkansas St came into the season with relatively high expectations and were a very misleading loss in the regular season finale away from winning the Sun Belt this season. Their QB Justice Hansen had a great season throwing for 3,639 yards in just 11 games with 34 TD passes. On the other side, Middle Tennessee’s season was side-tracked after an upset win over Syracuse in Week 2 as they lost their QB Brent Stockstill for an extended period. The Blue Raiders went only 2-4 SU without him. We like the OVER in this one as Middle Tennessee’s full season stats are misleading. The offense only topped 30 points once (avg 19.5 ppg) in the 6 games that QB Stockstill missed. In the last 4 games since he returned to the line-up, the offense scored at least 30 in every game (averaging 36 ppg). Meanwhile, Arkansas St’s offense was hitting their stride at the end of the season averaging nearly 700 ypg in their final two games but scored just 25 points vs Troy with several missed scoring opportunities (gives us value).The Red Wolves defense also is far different away from home as they allow 35 ppg and 453 ypg while allowing just 13 ppg and 292 ypg at home. Shootout!