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Pro Pick From
sleepyj

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(At current odds)

2017-12-10T03:00:00.000Z 2017-12-10T03:00:00.000Z - College Basketball

801 Long Beach State 49ers
vs.
802 Pepperdine Waves

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

12/09/2017

CBB Totals

OV LBS/PEP

78-71

156

3

L

-330

Analysis
This total doesn't make much sense to me..I could understand a 161.5, but not 156.5....It's a bit low and I think it goes well over the 161.5 number that I have..So I expect this to go up for sure.

Let's look at some of the important things we like in over plays.

First thing I notice is how many free shots these two teams attempt on a game by game basis...These are two of the top free throw shooting teams when it comes to attempts...They rank 24th and 26th in the nation...That's great to see and they avg about 40 FT attempts combined...That's a healthy amount and you like to see that in over plays...Let's check to see if they can make them now....Well it's not the greatest of numbers, but both teams shoot 69%...That's a tick or two what I like to see....Let's try to offset that now if we can...Ok, not that bad since Long Beach loves to foul...They are at the bottom and foul way too much..Pepperdine isn't terrible, but not great..So maybe we exceed the foul shots of 40 in this one and perhaps we even go up a tick or two with our %'s....I still like the fact that we are getting a ton of free throws here..

Blocks we always want to avoid blocks...We do that here as both teams come in under 5bpg...That's the number you want for an under..Pepperdine avgs just 1.5 and LBST at 4.5, which is avg....We win this area and that tells me the inside game should come rather easy for both teams.

Steals we like to be high and turnovers....Steals are avg to above avg with 10.5 per game...We could be looking at 30+ turnovers in this game tonight which I really like...This creates transition points and we should see a good amount of those.

3pt shooting for LBST is very good and Pepperdine is below avg.....Let's check the 3pt defense...Ok both teams are below avg which is good for us...Pepperdine is actually terrible as they can't stop the 3ball at all..THey rank 306th in the nation which is terrible...LBST is at 215th which is below avg, but not terrible...Still this is good to see and hopefully the defense will be lost and we can get some 3's to go down tonight..I think we will be ok here.

FG% is one of my favorite things about this game...Typically on offense 50% is great...Well both teams are right at 50% for our offenses , but our defenses really make up for anything we might be missing in this game...They allow 56% from the floor...That's terrible and that tells me we will see baskets going in from all over the place....The numbers suggest both teams give up 82ppg on defense...That's kinda what i expect here, that's 164 points total on defense.

Assists are rather good for each team as we might see 27-30 assists, that a great number to see for us having an over play...Plus with how poor the defenses are, we shoot achieve that FG% mark of 56% rather easy in this one.

I think Levin for LBST will have a monster game tonight and he should be the high scoring guy...He could set a fast pace and keep both teams running and gunning all night...I don't see much telling me this game should go under...It could be one of those 81-83 type games in which we get our over at the free throw line.

After going through the game, I'm also taking LBST for 1.5*...They win a bunch of areas I didn't expect them to win since they are the dog..They should be the favorite here by 1.5pts.
Pick Creation Time:
12/09/2017 8:20 AM
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