NBA Pick #3: 703 Miami Heat @ 704 Brooklyn Nets
Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Miami Heat (-2.5) (Play up to -3)
Odds: -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Brooklyn won their first game in Mexico City against Oklahoma City, as the Thunder couldn't handle being without two rotational players (Jerami Grant and Paul George) and also having a worse spot than the Nets, which made them lose all their gas in the second half under the tough high altitude conditions of Mexico City.
The Nets will now face the Heat on their second and last game in Mexico and I expect them to have a lot more problems today. First of all, Miami has a lot better ball handlers than Brooklyn and they'll be ready to expose Brooklyn's poor pick n roll defense that is bad and getting worse with time. Even though both teams will possibly miss a good number of shots given the high altitude and the different than usual conditions, I believe Miami will win this game thanks to their better talent and a better lineup, as James Johnson's entry into the lineup has given the team a lot more defensive fluidity, which has improved their pick n roll defense.
Unlike Oklahoma City, Miami has a good spot for tonight, as they had two days off to rest and prepare this game, unlike the Thunder, which only had one day. I believe Brooklyn having to play two games in altitude in three days will make them run out of gas, especially in the second half, which will allow Miami to eventually win this game rather comfortably. Thanks to that, I'll be taking the Heat today.