I like Purdue here on the ML....It's actually a very fair price for a team playing it's home opener...Yes this is the true home opening for the Boilermakers as they played in Indiana last week with a heavy Louisville crowd on hand....I think the Boilermakers come out of that last game with their heads held high....They played a very tough game against the Cardinals and now have a home game that they should win....Anything over 4.5 points would lean me to the ML this early in the season.....Let's breakdown some stats.....Purdue last week turned the ball over 4 times...How much would have they scored had they not turned the ball over....Purdue looks to be a passing team again this year as they are led by JR QB David Blough...He has plenty of game experience and will be looking to build off his success from last game...I'm looking for the Purdue running game to be much better in this contest as well...They just didn't seem comfortable as they had some fumbles and injuries in the first game...I think they come out looking to run the ball against Ohio....Cant they do that is another question...Ohio has always been tough in the trenches, but we really don't have much of a measuring stick with them as they played Hampton last week....Hampton stinks and these are two totally different offenses now that the Bobcats will have faced....Ohio held Hampton to just 47 yards rushing on 32 attempts...Which tells me Ohio will be good again stopping the run...We just don't need them to be great....On the flip side Ohio is a run first team, but Purdue held its own against Louisville only allowing 146 yards on the ground on 33 carries for the Cardinals...So I like to see that for sure....Ohio QB situation last week was split, which I never like to see against a bad team the first week then playing ont eh road against a much deeper team...That should hurt the Bobcats timing with reps and it also helps Purdue, because Ohio doens't pass much or well for that matter.....I also think the Purdue defense is the strength of this team as they returned 8 starters from last year...Coming off a loss and now facing a much lesser team, I expect the Purdue defense to play very well...Now they have a home crowd behind them as well as they didn't last week playing Louisville on a neutral site......Everything I see has Purdue favored in every area...The only thing I could possibly give the Bobcats is rushing defense, which is not out of the norm form them....I feel it's just too much to overcome for a Bobcats team heading on the road with a Purdue team looking to pick up a win in it's home opener....Purdue QB play here should be good enough to move the chains and get the points needed on the board...I don't want to lay the points, but I'd throw 1 unit up to -6.5 if need be...We cash this one...I think the score will be in the area of Purdue 31-23

09/04/2017 4:06 PM