After last night's OVER in the Golden State/San Antonio game cashed yet again, the OVER is now on an incredible 43-28-1 run in the NBA playoffs this year. Obviously, this won't be popular among those of you that like to follow recent trends.
As far as this series goes with regards to the total, the OVER is 2-1, but all three games have come down to the final minute on whether or not the total would go OVER or UNDER. If you followed a long with Game No. 3, the pace was far slower than what we saw in Games No. 1 and Game No. 2. Some of this has to do with Isaiah Thomas being out for Boston. The Celtics obviously miss his ability to move the ball up the floor, but more importantly Boston is a far better defensive team without Thomas as his lack of size is a significant liability on the defensive end.
The reason the OVER cashed by a bucket in Game No. 3 was the terrific 3-point shooting by both teams as they combined to go 34 of 79 from beyond the arc. Shockingly the leader was Boston's Marcus Smart who arguably had the best game of his entire career hitting seven 3-pointers and it's extremely unlikely that he will be able to duplicate that type of effort here. I know LeBron James is due for a big bounce back game offensively after scoring only 11 points but keep in mind, his cohorts Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson combined for 75 points in Game No. 3 and it's unlikely they will be able to replicate those numbers.
I know I've mentioned this a few times but as series move along, I tend to prefer UNDERS as the two teams start to figure one another out, there's slower pace because of more tired legs and there's also greater defensive intensity as the games mean more. That philosophy hasn't worked real well this playoff season, but historically it's been the way to go in the last 10 years.